Challenges facing customs revenue collection in 2025

Influencing factors

The National Assembly has set the General Department of Vietnam Customs a revenue target of VND 411 trillion for 2025. This projection is based on GDP growth of 6.5–7% and crude oil prices ranging between US$ 75–80 per barrel. However, the realization of this target is likely to be affected by multiple factors.

According to Ms. Le Nhu Quynh, Director of the Import-Export Duty Department, revenue collection in 2025 will face declines due to reduced tariffs under free trade agreements (FTAs). The government issued Decree 26/2023/ND-CP on May 31, 2023, stipulating preferential export and import tariff schedules for 2022–2027.

The average tariff rate dropped from 14.8% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2023, 9.6% in 2024, and is expected to fall to 8.4% in 2025. Further reductions to 8% and 7.5% are scheduled for 2026 and 2027, respectively. In 2023, the weighted average import tax rate was 2.12%, but this decreased to 1.61% in 2024 due to international commitments, resulting in an estimated revenue loss of VND 14 trillion.

Ninh Binh Customs officers (Ha Nam Ninh Customs Department) guide enterprises to implement regulations in the customs field. Photo: H.Nụ

Additionally, amendments to Decree 59/2018/ND-CP, which repealed regulations on local import-export activities, are projected to reduce annual revenue by approximately VND 10 trillion. Refunds for import taxes related to declarations registered in 2024 are expected to amount to about VND 3.5 trillion in 2025.

Trade defense measures imposed by foreign countries are also expected to impact revenue. The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated a review on October 17, 2024, of anti-dumping duties on oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from Vietnam. Similarly, India launched an anti-dumping investigation into hot-rolled steel coils from Vietnam. These measures are likely to reduce revenue from imported coal and ore for steel production by approximately VND 12.5 trillion in 2025.

Value-added tax (VAT) reductions from 10% to 8% on certain goods are projected to decrease revenue by around VND 9 trillion during the first half of 2025. This figure was not factored into the budget forecast as parliamentary approval is pending.

Strategic focus

Given these challenges, customs authorities must adopt a high-intensity approach, prioritizing key measures early in the year to achieve broader customs management and revenue collection objectives.

Efforts should focus on facilitating trade, improving administrative efficiency, and minimizing revenue losses. This includes modernizing customs laws to align with international commitments and ensuring transparent and consistent regulations.

Ms. Le Nhu Quynh emphasized the need for robust tax policies and effective tax management legislation, given customs' responsibility for enforcing numerous legal frameworks governing import-export activities, transit goods, and cross-border transportation.

Electronic customs procedures are now fully implemented nationwide. Consequently, any amendments to legal systems may significantly affect processing times and compliance costs for businesses and individuals.

In 2025, especially in the first half, customs units must complete organizational reforms while adopting centralized clearance models. They should focus on efficient customs operations within the new organizational structure.

To accelerate revenue collection, customs authorities must intensify efforts to combat tax evasion through audits, post-clearance audit, internal audits, and anti-smuggling initiatives. Developing sound legal frameworks for tax policies and management will also be a priority.

In 2025, the primary focus will be on conducting comprehensive reviews and evaluations to propose amendments to the Law on Export and Import Taxes and the Law on Tax Administration, aiming to refine and enhance the legal framework. To ensure effective tax management, departments under the General Department of Vietnam Customs must thoroughly examine the centralized clearance model, tax-related operations integrated with customs procedures, and tax administration processes linked to customs clearance. This approach will establish a foundation for document digitization and the automation of customs procedures.