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Assoc. Prof. Dr. Tran Hoang Ngan

How do you evaluate the main growth drivers for Vietnam economy in recent times despite many difficulties?

Expected main indicators for socio-economic development in 2025: GDP growth of about 6.5-7% and striving to achieve a higher growth rate (7-7.5%) to rank 31-33rd in the world in terms of GDP scale by the end of 2025. GDP per capita reaches about 4,900 USD. The proportion of processing and manufacturing industry in GDP reaches about 24.1%. The average growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) is about 4.5%. The average growth rate of social labor productivity is 5.3-5.4%. The rate of trained labor reaches about 70%, of which those with degrees and certificates reach about 29-29.5%. The unemployment rate in urban areas is below 4%. The rate of poor households according to the multidimensional poverty standard decreases by about 0.8-1%... ( Report on the implementation results of the 2024 socio-economic development plan; projected socio-economic development plan for 2025

Recently, Vietnam's economy has recorded encouraging results with 3 growth drivers. Firstly, exports have achieved a growth rate of over 10-15%, showing the demand for Vietnamese goods in international markets. Secondly, investment, especially attracting foreign investment reveals positive signals, when the disbursement of foreign investment is at the highest level in the past 5 years. In addition, investment in infrastructure and attracting social investment capital have also recorded a significant increase, creating a solid foundation to promote the economy. Thirdly, the growth rate of domestic consumption, reflected in total retail sales of goods and service revenue, has also contributed positively to growth. This partly reflects consumer confidence and purchasing power in the domestic market. The above-mentioned motivations prove that we have sufficient potential to develop and achieve the set economic goals. Moreover, it is also necessary to mention the people's trust in the leadership and the consolidating awareness and aspiration to enter a new era of development, building a strong national position. How has the 2024 budget picture created momentum for economic growth, sir? Through the Government's report at the current 8th Session, it can be seen that the total state budget revenue in the past 9 months has been very positive. The budget revenue results are "real money", also the most realistic reflection of the economic recovery. The budget expenditure level is also suitable to current situation, even with many unexpected tasks this year, thereby contributing to strengthen the guarantee of increasing the basic salary from July 1, 2024 according to regulations. As for public investment disbursement, it is still slow, but hopefully with the drastic solutions that the Government, ministries and branches have been implementing, the results will be accelerated and ensure the plan set out in the remaining months of 2024. How do you evaluate the effect of the government’s inflation control to the economy? Vietnam has been successfully controlling inflation for more than a decade. Since 2014, the inflation rate has always been maintained below the 4% threshold. This is a remarkable achievement because it creates a stable macroeconomic environment, ensures major balances and brings confidence to investors, creating a foundation for the economy to stand firm in the face of global fluctuations. Moreover, Vietnam's trade balance has always been in surplus since 2016, which is one of key factors to maintain the macro economy as well the exchange rate stability. Thereby, market and people are not to be "stirred up" by fake news that affects confidence. How do you assess the economic growth potential of our country in the coming time? In recent years, with stable financial resources, we have invested a lot in infrastructure, especially transportation in order to reduce logistics costs, which will be a driving force for sustainable growth in the coming time. Along with that, the investment in healthcare, education, and digital infrastructure has contributed to improving the quality of people's lives. Vietnam's position and prestige in the international arena have also increased by becoming a comprehensive strategic partner of many countries in the world, thereby increasing the ability to integrate and cooperate internationally. In particular, the investment in the North-South high-speed railway, if approved by the National Assembly at this 8th Session, will be an important step for Vietnam to catch up with the development trend in the world. This project not only helps to strengthen connectivity between regions but also opens up development space for provinces and cities, especially remote and difficult-to-access areas. Many opinions are concerned about the resources for implementation, but currently public debt has been put under control at 37% of GDP, thereby ensuring the mobilization of huge resources for investment. However, it is also important to note that the problem of economic efficiency in this project is not to be of major concerns, but rather the problem of social efficiency. In fact, the upgrade of transportation system enables to lower people's travel costs and to promote the regional economy and develop areas such as tourism and trade. The value of real estate in areas near stations or stops will also increase, thereby creating revenue from exploiting the space around the railway line. Regarding institutional dynamics, at this Session, the National Assembly will consider the largest workload ever to perfect the institutional foundation, not only the institutions for the market economy but also those for culture, science, technology, and innovation. Currently, Vietnam is proposing three breakthrough drivers for development: infrastructure, institutions, and human resources, but a fourth idea is needed to accelerate the breakthrough in science and technology. This breakthrough is something that all Vietnamese people have, with the dynamism and creativity that have been demonstrated through many international competitions. If all the breakthroughs are gathered, it will awaken the development potential, creating momentum for the economy to move forward. Thank you very much!