Worries for exports in the last months of the year

VCN - Export surplus was nearly US$4 billion in the first eight months of 2022, but commodity exports are forecast to face many difficulties and challenges in the remaining months of the year, due to unfavorable factors both in domestic and world markets.
Illustration. Photo: Huy Kham
Illustration. Photo: Huy Kham

Information released by the Ministry of Industry and Trade this morning on September 5 shows that export turnover of goods was estimated at US$250.8 billion in the first eight months of 2022, up 17.3% over the same period last year (up 21.9% same period last year).

From the perspective of the industry, the export turnover of processed industrial products in eight months continued to make an important contribution to the overall growth rate of export activities with an estimated turnover of US$215.39 billion, an increase of 17% over the same period last year and accounted for 85.88% of the total export turnover.

In August 2022 alone, the export turnover of this group of goods increased by 9.5% over the previous month due to the rapid increase in export turnover of a number of strategic items such as computers, electronics and components increased by 11.6%; telephones and components increased by 30.6%; cameras, camcorders and accessories increased by 49.3%; footwear of all kinds increased by 5.6%.

“However, August, 2022 also recorded a decrease compared to the previous month in the export turnover of some key commodities in the group of processed and manufactured goods such as fertilizers of all kinds down by 22.4%; iron and steel of all kinds decreased by 28.3%,” the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade said.

Regarding the import of goods, the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade added that in the first eight months of 2022, the import turnover was estimated at US$246.84 billion, up 13.6% over the same period last year. In which, the group of production materials accounted for 94%; and consumer goods group accounted for 6%.

China is still Vietnam's largest import market in the past 8 months with an estimated turnover of US$81.8 billion, up 12.8% over the same period last year.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade forecast that, in the last months of the year, a number of key factors of the world market may adversely affect our economy and trade.

Specifically, the high record inflation in most countries affected the consumption demand of imported non-essential goods, causing a decrease in the demand for imported goods from other countries, affecting the economic recovery, reducing the demand for goods and affecting new investment.

In addition, supply chain disruptions are expected to continue, reducing the recovery of economic, investment and trade activities after Covid-19.

In addition, the price of essential goods and freight rates has signs of decreasing but still at high levels, which will negatively affect the recovery of global economic growth, creating difficulties for the global economy and trade, including Vietnam's import and export activities.

Notably, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the domestic context also has potential factors that adversely affect production and trade growth. Specifically, an increase in the US dollar will adversely affect imports of many production materials to serve export.

In addition, exporters face many difficulties. Some industries are facing the risk of reduced orders due to cumbersome administrative procedures, labor competition among industries tends to increase.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade determined that the last months of the year would focus on supporting enterprises in finding alternative sources of raw materials with suitable prices to ensure enough raw materials, fuel and materials for production and consumption, prepare for the year-end shopping season; focus on supporting enterprises to make good use of the signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to speed up production and export.

The ministry also said that the issue of facilitation in administrative procedures for enterprises should be further promoted through the application of digitization in handling procedures, typically in tax refund procedures, customs clearance procedures for import and export, and issuance of Certificate of Origin (C/O).

In general, in the first eight months of 2022, Vietnam continues to maintain a trade surplus, with an estimated trade surplus of about US$3.96 billion (the same period last year, the trade deficit was US$3.52 billion). In which, the domestic economic sector had a trade deficit of US$19.44 billion; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) had a trade surplus of US$23.4 billion.
By Thanh Nguyen/ Binh Minh

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