The trend of GDP acceleration is increasingly clear

	Standard Chartered forecasts Q2 GDP to moderate amid higher inflation
	Vietnam’s GDP growth reaches 6.42% in first half
	Higher GDP forecasts on robust economic recovery and new growth drivers

The manufacturing and processing industry (accounting for more than 74% of the added value of the entire industry) continues to grow with a clearer trend. Illustration photo: TTXVN

Growth exceeded all forecasts

According to data on the socio-economic situation in the second quarter and the first six months of 2024 from the General Statistics Office, GDP growth in the second quarter has nearly reached the 7% threshold, reaching 6.93%, bringing 6-month GDP growth to 6.42%. Comparing to the period 2020-2024, these are very positive growth levels. Specifically, the growth rate of the second quarter of this year is only lower than the 7.83% growth rate of the second quarter of 2022, much higher than the 0.34% growth rate of the second quarter of 2020, as well as the increase 4,25% of the second quarter of last year. In 2021, GDP growth in the second quarter is 6.55%, is lower than the figure in the second quarter of this year.

Thanks to that, the growth rate in the first six months of the year is only lower than the growth rate of 6.58% in the first six months of 2022 in the period 2020-2024. Specifically, the GDP growth rate in the first six months of the year compared to the same period last year for the years 2020-2024 is 1.74%, 5.71%, 6.58%, 3.84% and 6.42% respectively. According to the economic growth scenario set out in Resolution 01/NQ-CP of the Government, for the economy to grow by 6-6.5% this year, the first quarter must grow by 5.2-5.6%, growth was 5.8-6.2% in the second quarter, six months was 5.5-6%, growth in the third quarter was 6.2-6.7%, nine months growth was 5.7-6.2%, growth in the fourth quarter was 6.5-7%. From the above numbers, it can be affirmed that the economy has achieved a positive growth rate, exceeding the growth scenario proposed by Resolution No. 01.

Notably, the manufacturing and processing industry (accounting for more than 74% of the added value of the entire industry) continues to grow with a clearer trend, with an increase of 8.5% in the first six months of the year over the same period (same period last year decreased by 1.8%). Exciting import and export activities show the positive recovery of the economy, with an estimated trade surplus of US $11.63 billion. Regarding investment attraction, the total foreign investment capital registered in Vietnam in the first six months of the year reached nearly US $15.2 billion, an increase of 13.1% over the same period in 2023. Of which, there are 1,538 new projects was granted an investment registration certificate, with a total registered capital of nearly US $9.54 billion, an increase of 18.9% in the number of projects and an increase of 46.9% in capital compared to the same period last year. Regarding implemented capital, in the first six months of the year, disbursed capital reached about US $10.84 billion, an increase of 8.2% over the same period last year. This is the highest amount of realized foreign direct investment in the first six months of the year in the past five years.

Evaluating the results of the first six months of the year and forecasting the second half of the year, economist Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said that the economic recovery is taking place stably and quite evenly. Accordingly, in the first half of 2024, although the global economy and trade show more positive signs, representing a favorable opportunity for development, the world situation continues to be complicated and unpredictable. Vietnam's economy in 2023 and the first half of 2024 will maintain positive growth momentum, with GDP growth rate among the leading in the region and the world. The recovery has been stable and quite uniform across regions, localities, as well as economic sectors. The improvement is clearly recorded in many economic indicators, notably exports, tourism, FDI attraction, employment, workers' income and international economic position...

Updating growth scenario

Commenting on the domestic economic situation in the last six months of the year, Director of the Department of National Accounts System (General Statistics Office) Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh said that the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sector in the last six months of the year will have more favorable when the weather enters the rainy season, drought and saltwater intrusion are no longer a concern for agricultural producers.

With the recovery of the world economy, industry in the first six months of the year had remarkable growth and is a premise for economic growth in the last six months of the year. The results of the survey on business trends in the processing and manufacturing industry in the third quarter also showed that up to 40.7% of businesses rated it more positively than in the second quarter, 42.2% of businesses thought that maintaining stability was a key factor. Good signal for the recovery of the processing and manufacturing industry in the coming months. In addition, the service industry has the opportunity to develop in the last six months of the year when the third quarter continues to be the peak tourist season. Good exploitation of tourism activities will strongly spread to the market service industry.

Domestic consumption is an important factor promoting economic growth with the advantage of a consumer market of more than 100 million people. Some factors stimulating domestic consumption in the last 6 months of the year include: VAT reduction policy of 2% until the end of the year for some groups of goods and services; The policy of increasing the base salary from July 1, 2024 will bring many meanings to the team of officials, civil servants, and public employees, contributing to improving living standards, increasing consumption and labor productivity, contributing to GDP growth in the last six months of the year.

Also according to Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Vietnam's international trade is tending to increase strongly due to world demand gradually improving and domestic production recovering. Vietnam's exports are forecast to continue to grow well in the last months of the year, especially with key products such as computer electronics and components, machinery and spare parts, and some agricultural and forestry products, seafood... Public investment continues to be promoted and accelerated and there are many solutions to effectively use public investment capital in the last six months of the year to complete goals, to remove difficulties, lead, promote, attract investment from other economic sectors, create jobs, contribute to enhancing social security as well as create an infrastructure foundation to serve rapid and sustainable development in the long term.

However, the representative of the General Statistics Office also emphasized that to achieve the upper growth rate of about 6.5%, there are many difficulties and challenges, and it is necessary to continue implementing drastic solutions to maintain stability. economic - political - social situation; ensure macroeconomic balances; Good control of inflation; promote efficiency and flexibility in fiscal and monetary policies; Drastically and synchronously implement the solutions proposed in the Government's Resolutions and the Prime Minister's Directive on economic development in the last six months of the year.

Proposing solutions for growth in the second half of the year, economist Dr. Nguyen Minh Phong said that, in the spirit of Directive No. 12/CT-TTg of the Prime Minister on key tasks and solutions to promote socio-economic development in the remaining period of the year, ministries, agencies and localities need to drastically and effectively implement key tasks and solutions. Specifically, proactively monitor and respond closely to developments in international, regional and domestic situations, especially in monetary, fiscal, trade and investment policies, to ensure market stability commodity prices, especially gasoline, oil, essential goods, housing and food; Prioritize growth associated with maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, ensuring major balances of the economy... Along with that, healthy, safe and effective development of financial markets, securities, corporate bonds; develop the domestic market, expand and diversify export markets, diversify supply chains, promote exports, especially for large, potential markets; Forecast well, proactively grasp the situation, promptly advise and effectively handle situations, avoid being passive or surprised...