Import and export potential growth promised to be vibrant in 6 end- year months, many industries welcome opportunities

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Garment businesses keep filling more orders. Photo: H.Diu

Accordingly, Vietnam exports are expected to maintain its recovery as the economies of Vietnam's major trading partners are forecast to grow.

According to a report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the GDP of most of Vietnam's major trading partners is forecast to have higher growth rates than the previous year. In particular, the GDP growth of the US - Vietnam's largest export market - is expected to reach 2.6%, while China's GDP is forecast to increase by 5%. In addition, the GDP of the Euro zone is expected to record an increase of 0.9%.

Citing accumulated data for the first 8 months of 2024, the total import-export turnover reached 511.11 billion USD (up 17.1%), with a trade surplus of 19.07 billion USD. Yuanta commented that import-export is witnessing recovery. Meanwhile, businesses are expanding new customers in the Asian region (Japan, Korea, and India), European and American markets are also starting to show more positive signs.

Along with that, the cooling of shipping rates due to the number of ships delivered in 2024 will increase capacity, thereby putting pressure on lower ship charter rates. The reduction in shipping rates is likely to remove the factor hindering the recent growth of import and export.

At the same time, the US Federal Reserve (Fed)'s interest rate cut is a catalyst for the second half of 2024 to 2025. This will promote economic recovery as well as consumer demand in the US in particular and other countries in general, which is the driving force for Vietnam's exports from the second half of 2024 to 2025.

Assessing the opportunities for specific industries, for example, the rubber industry, Yuanta Securities experts said, due to more tighten supply as heavy rains which have affected rubber exploitation in Southeast Asian countries, this rate cut has partly supported the world's natural rubber prices in general to maintain the recovery momentum.

Domestic rubber enterprises will benefit from the increase in prices on the world market. In fact, Vietnam’s rubber exports continue to depend largely on China's tire production demand. Currently, China's tire industry accounts for about 30% of the total global automobile production.

For the textile and garment industry, many enterprises' export orders continue to be filled as the political tension in Bangladesh is showing signs of cooling down. However, the formation of a new government will take a long time to stabilize, which will cause garment enterprises to transfer part of their orders to other countries to minimize risks and it is expected that Vietnam will benefit from the shift of orders from Bangladesh. Meanwhile, US garment inventories are still low compared to 2022.

Seaport industry is promised to enjoy much benefit from the improvement in import and export activities. Accordingly, the seaport industry is on the path to recovery as the volume of goods cleared through ports gradually increases. In the first half of 2024, import turnover by sea increased by 14%, while exports increased sharply by 23%.

“The US is one of Vietnam's key trading partners, with marine containerized goods exported by to this market accounting for about 35% of the value. Moreover, the Fed’s current interest rate cut by 0.5% enables to boost consumption, support businesses to boldly increase inventories in the future. We expect the above factors to boost the throughput of goods through southern port clusters,” Yuanta Securities expert emphasized.

In addition, trade with China is increasingly vibrant thanks to positive signs of domestic production demand, and the need to import raw materials and machinery to serve new orders from the US and EU.

According to Circular 39/2023/TT-BGTVT effective from February 15, 2024, the price frame for loading and unloading import and temporary import containers will soar by 10% compared to before, which can support profit margins for port businesses…