How is Vietnam affected by the US-China trade war?

VCN- If the US-China trade war escalates, it can have negative impacts on Vietnam’s imports and exports. However, Vietnam can also gain positive aspects from competing with Chinese goods in the world’s markets.  
how does the effect on vietnam in the us china trade war US-China trade war breaks out: whether exports and imports lose or not
how does the effect on vietnam in the us china trade war Vietnam in midst of trade war among world powers
how does the effect on vietnam in the us china trade war

Export activities could suffer through major crisis due to the escalation of US-China trade war. Photo: N.H

Hence forward, the points from experts at the scientific forum, “2018 Macroeconomic report: Takes the front role initiative of the shock-maintaining macroeconomic stability”, held by Ho Chi Minh University of Banking, which took place on the 9th of July.

Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Director of Development, Vietnam Fulbright University, pointed out that as of now the US taxation policies on China has not directly impacted on Vietnam’s import and export goods, but has had an indirect impact because Vietnam is in the global production value chain.

There is a need to consider the impact of China’s export turnover to the US if the US imposes a tax rate of 25% on Chinese goods, and of which, how much does Vietnam’s turnover account for? Currently Standard Chartered Bank has studied this and assumed that if the commercial war stops import and export activities from China to the US, Vietnam's GDP will be affected 1%.

The economic expert Vo Chi Thanh, said that the direct impact by the trade war was not a big problem. Because, this matter did not completely stop import and export activities, it only it only caused a slight decrease. Currently, the US mainly levied tax on Chinese high-tech goods, these are globally manufactured items. This also affected the US’s major high-tech goods, so the US Government should take this into consideration.

However, Mr. Nguyen Tri Thanh also noted the possibility of shifting from a trade shock to a financial shock. In detail, many countries can devalue their domestic currencies to keep up with the competition, hence putting pressure on the global exchange rates. In addition, there is also the capital flow shifting caused by FED decisions. Experts stated that if the instability level increases, trade would reduce.

More specifically about impact of trade war, Mr. Thanh said that if trade war only stopped at a turnover of US$ 37 billion under the Decision on 6th July, then this would not cause a great impact. However, this was just the first shot showing that the US would not offer a concession to China. All are still in favor of both parties reaching an agreement to avoid further escalation on this war. Nevertheless, with president Trump’s strong attitude and resistance towards the matter, the turnover could reach US$ 200 to 500 billion.

how does the effect on vietnam in the us china trade war Vietnam in midst of trade war among world powers

While global trade policies take place among the world’s powerful economies, small economies like Vietnam have to ...

At that time, a series of Vietnam’s products would be levied with a higher tax rate and Vietnam would suffer some negative impacts. Accordingly, Vietnam’s exports to other countries would be affected, because imports become more difficult for those countries to the US, and so more difficult for Vietnamese exports to those countries, thereby Chinese goods would massively flow into Vietnam. However, there are positive impacts, particularly in competition with Chinese exports to the US, especially for labor-intensive goods.

By Nguyen Hien/Ngoc Loan

Related News

Bright spots at the beginning of the year

Bright spots at the beginning of the year

VCN - Production and business activities of enterprises have been vibrant since the first days of the year, thanks to which, many economic indicators in the first 2 months of 2024 are positive and positive. This is the fulcrum of trust and motivation for businesses to continue to develop.
Vietnam experiences a trade surplus of over US$11 billion in two months

Vietnam experiences a trade surplus of over US$11 billion in two months

VCN - The trade turnover between Vietnam and China reach over US$27 billion only in two months

Latest News

Import turnover of 19 commodity groups grows over 20%

Import turnover of 19 commodity groups grows over 20%

VCN – Most of major import commodity groups have high growth turnover compared to the same period in 2023.
Vietnam owns significant advantages in attracting FDI

Vietnam owns significant advantages in attracting FDI

VCN - In an interview with Customs News, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute of Branding and Competition Strategy, believed that the global minimum tax could affect global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and the FDI attraction policies of each country. However, "in crisis lies opportunity", Vietnam still has significant advantages in attracting FDI.
Nearly 7,000 tariff lines of AKFTA product specific rules need to be transposed

Nearly 7,000 tariff lines of AKFTA product specific rules need to be transposed

VCN - ASEAN member states and the Republic of Korea (RoK) reached a consensus on the transposition of ASEAN-RoK Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) Product Specific Rules from the Harmonised System Codes HS 2017 to HS 2022.
Vietnam needs to cook up stronger global rice brand

Vietnam needs to cook up stronger global rice brand

Although Vietnamese rice has a foothold in several fastidious markets, there is a long way to go to make it a stronger brand globally, according to insiders.

More News

Vietnam advised to fully tap CPTPP to boost exports to Canada

Vietnam advised to fully tap CPTPP to boost exports to Canada

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) has opened up numerous opportunities for Vietnam and Canada to boost two-way trade, however, tax initiatives under the trade pact have not been tapped to the fullest extent by the Vietnamese exporters, said Vietnamese Trade Counsellor in Canada Tran Thu Quynh.
ASEAN, RoK agree on transposition of AKFTA product specific rules

ASEAN, RoK agree on transposition of AKFTA product specific rules

ASEAN member states and the Republic of Korea (RoK) have reached a consensus on the transposition of ASEAN-RoK Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) Product Specific Rules from the Harmonised System Codes HS 2017 to HS 2022.
Opportunities for digital technology businesses to go global

Opportunities for digital technology businesses to go global

Finding solutions and directions to promote and develop Vietnamese digital technology enterprises is an important task, which will promote the stability and sustainability of the country's economy, heard a recent conference.
Vietnam, China eye stronger border trade

Vietnam, China eye stronger border trade

Border provinces of Vietnam and China should continue close coordination and enhance trade promotion between the two sides, stressed the recent talks between the management boards of the economic zone of the northern province of Ha Giang and the Malypo border economic cooperation zone of China’s Yunnan province.
Improve competitiveness and sustainable development of the seafood industry

Improve competitiveness and sustainable development of the seafood industry

VCN - In early 2024, seafood exports have prospered. This is the driving force that helps seafood businesses hope for a stronger recovery this year. Ms. Nguyen Thi Thu Sac, Chairwoman of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) shared with Customs Magazine.
Business environment reform needs further promotion: expert

Business environment reform needs further promotion: expert

Resolution 02 issued by the Government creates pressure for the ministries, sectors and localities to make changes for the business community as well as the socio-economic development.
Singapore is the largest foreign investor in VN in Q1

Singapore is the largest foreign investor in VN in Q1

The disbursed FDI rose by 7.1 per cent in the first quarter to reach $4.63 billion, a signal that the disbursement will continue the positive trend, the agency said.
Thai Binh boosts investment, trade cooperation with Germany

Thai Binh boosts investment, trade cooperation with Germany

A delegation from the northern province of Thai Binh, led by Deputy Secretary of the provincial Party Committee Nguyen Khac Than, visited several localities and business organisations in Germany from March 25 to 27, in a bid to enhance trade cooperation with and attract direct investment from the European nation.
Lifting obstacles to develop industrial parks

Lifting obstacles to develop industrial parks

VCN - Attracting investment and developing industrial zones (IZs) and economic zones (EZs) is one of the important contents to implement the policy of developing a multi-component, open, attract investment and resources from all economic sectors to develop the country. In addition to the results achieved, there still limitations that need to be removed to draw investments to develop industrial parks and economic zones, including financial problems for industrial parks.
Read More

Your care

Latest Most read
Import turnover of 19 commodity groups grows over 20%

Import turnover of 19 commodity groups grows over 20%

VCN - According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, in the first two months of 2024, the total import turnover of the country increased by 17.1% year-on-year to US$ 54.21 billion. The result is only lower than the record increase of the same per
Vietnam owns significant advantages in attracting FDI

Vietnam owns significant advantages in attracting FDI

VCN - Vietnam's economy has passed the most dangerous and difficult period and is now more stable. Inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates have decreased, bank liquidity has stabilized, and the stock and bond markets have experienced shocks and begu
Nearly 7,000 tariff lines of AKFTA product specific rules need to be transposed

Nearly 7,000 tariff lines of AKFTA product specific rules need to be transposed

ASEAN member states and the Republic of Korea (RoK) reached a consensus on the transposition of ASEAN-RoK Free Trade Agreement (AKFTA) Product Specific Rules
Vietnam needs to cook up stronger global rice brand

Vietnam needs to cook up stronger global rice brand

Although Vietnamese rice has a foothold in several fastidious markets, there is a long way to go to make it a stronger brand globally, according to insiders.
Vietnam advised to fully tap CPTPP to boost exports to Canada

Vietnam advised to fully tap CPTPP to boost exports to Canada

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) has opened up numerous opportunities for Vietnam and Canada to boost two-way trade, however, tax initiatives under the trade pact have not been tapped to the fullest extent by the Vietnamese exporters, said Vietnamese Trade Counsellor in Canada Tran Thu Quynh.
Mobile Version