Economy shows signs of losing momentum: expert
The remark was made by Dang Duc Anh, head of the analysis and forecast section of the National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCIF), at a discussion in Hanoi on August 8.
The growth rate reached 7.45% in the first quarter and 6.79% in the second quarter, but it is predicted to slow down to 6.72% during July-September and 6.56% in the last three months. Meanwhile, average inflation is likely to be around 4 – 4.2%, according to the NCIF.
Despite the 7.08% growth in the first six months, there are many challenges during the rest of the year, including pressure from the appreciation of the US dollar due to the possibility that the US Federal Reserve could hike interest rates twice from now to the year’s end.
Resources for economic growth in the coming months are unclear while the processing and manufacturing industry – a major driving force – is depending on FDI firms and still at a low level in value chains. The driving force from the FDI sector, which is becoming saturated in Vietnam, is also reducing. Additionally, effects of business climate improvement policies haven’t been clearly seen, he added.
Other challenges include impacts of the US-China trade war.
Echoing his view, other experts said the US-China trade tension could lead to a domino effect on Vietnam’s economy.
Tran Toan Thang, head of the NCIF’s world economy section, said the trade war, geopolitical risks and the US’s taxation policy reforms will affect investment decision of multi-national American companies. The reduction of corporate income tax in the US may also trigger a wave of tax cut or more investment incentives in some countries to keep US businesses, which could impact the competitiveness of Vietnam’s investment environment.
To maintain the growth momentum for the coming time, Vietnam should create a more transparent investment climate, improve technological capacity to attract more FDI companies, and actively respond to the US-China trade war’s impacts and exchange rate changes.
Meanwhile, Luu Bich Ho, former Director of the Vietnam Institute for Development Strategies at the Ministry of Planning and Investment, said the country needs to press on with developing processing and manufacturing and pay more attention to seeking export markets.
He noted amid US-China trade tensions, it is necessary to prevent Chinese goods from taking advantage of the Vietnamese market to falsify their origin to export to the US, or Vietnam could be taxed in a way China has been.
Related News
Vietnam, Korea Customs sign AEO MRA
11:07 | 26/12/2024 Customs
Prioritizing semiconductor workforce training
09:16 | 15/12/2024 Headlines
Vietnam-Cambodia: Looking back on journey of cooperation
14:45 | 11/12/2024 Customs
Ho Chi Minh City achieves record state revenue of over VND500 trillion in 2024
10:33 | 10/12/2024 Finance
Latest News
Sustainable opportunities for Vietnamese goods to penetrate the global market
13:54 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Top brands in Việt Nam in 2024 revealled
13:54 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Vietnamese catfish exports to hit $2 billion mark this year
13:52 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Is the 12% export growth target for 2025 achievable?
13:50 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
More News
Increase revenue from building a sustainable supply chain
11:04 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Coconut export enter acceleration cycle
11:02 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Pepper export value reaches highest level since 2017
17:58 | 29/12/2024 Import-Export
Fraudulent planting area codes threaten Việt Nam’s durian exports
17:52 | 29/12/2024 Import-Export
Industrial production maintains rapid and throughout bounce back
14:26 | 29/12/2024 Import-Export
Halal Market: The Door is Wide Open, How to Exploit It
14:23 | 29/12/2024 Import-Export
Việt Nam becomes second biggest garment exporter globally
18:06 | 28/12/2024 Import-Export
Fraudulent planting area codes threaten Việt Nam’s durian exports
18:03 | 28/12/2024 Import-Export
Trade remedies protect domestic industries
13:49 | 28/12/2024 Import-Export
Your care
Sustainable opportunities for Vietnamese goods to penetrate the global market
13:54 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Top brands in Việt Nam in 2024 revealled
13:54 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Vietnamese catfish exports to hit $2 billion mark this year
13:52 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Is the 12% export growth target for 2025 achievable?
13:50 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export
Increase revenue from building a sustainable supply chain
11:04 | 30/12/2024 Import-Export