Is the 12% export growth target for 2025 achievable?

Containers loaded at Cái Mép - Thị Vải Port in southern province of Bà Rịa - Vũng Tàu. VNA/VNS Photo Hồng Đạt

The Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade has set an ambitious target for 2025: a 10-12 per cent increase in total export turnover compared to 2024.

This goal follows the positive trade performance in 2024, which saw a continued trade surplus exceeding US$20 billion.

Trần Thanh Hải, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department, shared this outlook during a conference summarising the department’s achievements in 2024 and outlining the tasks for 2025 last week.

However, this target has sparked varying opinions within the ministry. Tô Ngọc Sơn, Deputy Director of the Asia-Africa Market Department, expressed concerns about the feasibility of achieving a 10-12 per cent export growth in 2025. He highlighted the potential impact of the ongoing US-China trade conflict, which could disrupt global trade, including Việt Nam’s export activities.

Phạm Nguyên Hùng, Director of the Department of Industry, stressed that it is crucial to evaluate Việt Nam’s total import-export turnover for 2024, which rose by 15 per cent compared to 2023.

He argued that a broader perspective, considering both imports and exports, should be taken into account when setting targets. This would offer a more balanced view of the trade situation rather than focusing solely on export growth.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, Nguyễn Sinh Nhật Tân, concluded the conference by emphasising the importance of setting higher goals year after year. He acknowledged concerns about optimism but stressed that ambitious targets require concrete actions.

“The 10-12 per cent growth target might not be enough - we must aim higher,” he said, calling on the Import-Export Department to devise solutions for expanding export markets, increasing domestic production capacity, and ensuring smooth logistics.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Deputy Minister outlined several key strategies to meet the growth targets. He urged the department to foster closer collaboration within the ministry and other relevant units, leveraging cross-border e-commerce, innovating trade promotion activities and improving logistics to boost production and exports. Additionally, he emphasised the importance of setting clear goals for both imports and exports, particularly those that support domestic consumption and further export activities.

Another priority for the department is enhancing supervision and inspection, alongside strengthening support for businesses and localities involved in import-export activities. This includes fostering cross-border co-operation in production and supply chains.

Deputy Minister Tân also underscored the need for technological innovation and digital transformation in the sector, including expanding e-commerce channels using business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) models.

Furthermore, creating robust information connectivity between departments and agencies is essential to streamline the management of export, import, and transit activities. This would provide a transparent legal framework for data sharing and improve the efficiency of state management in this sector.

To achieve the target of a 10-12 per cent increase in export turnover for 2025 while maintaining a trade surplus exceeding $20 billion, Hải emphasised the critical role of businesses in fully utilising Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) to persify markets and products. He also pointed to the need for significant investments in technology and logistics infrastructure to enhance competitiveness.

The Import-Export Department plans to support businesses by improving forecasting and early warning systems related to import-export trends. It will also work closely with industry associations to resolve emerging issues. Additionally, the department will advise the government on policies that will help businesses implement commitments under FTAs, build modern logistics infrastructure, and promote official trade, particularly in border regions.

The path to achieving this target is undeniably challenging, but with concerted efforts across government departments and the private sector, there remains hope that Việt Nam can continue its upward trajectory in international trade.

Adjusted Power Plan VIII to be submitted by February 25, 2025

On Saturday, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Hồng Diên led a meeting to review and finalise the adjusted Power Plan VIII.

Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính has requested the completion of this draft, and any issues arising during the process will be reported directly to him.

Minister Diên tasked the Electricity and Renewable Energy Department with prioritising the completion of the draft, ensuring that it is submitted to the PM for initial review by February 18, 2025. After incorporating feedback, the final draft will be presented to the Government on February 25.

The minister emphasised the need for ministries, branches, and localities to promptly provide updated data and comments by January 5, 2025, to support the draft’s completion.

This includes addressing issues related to stalled solar projects, as well as reviewing proposals from local governments, such as those from Quảng Trị, Thanh Hóa, Quảng Nam, and Ninh Bình provinces.

The Power Plan VIII, approved in May 2023, aims for Việt Nam’s total installed power capacity to reach 146,000 MW by 2030, a significant increase from current levels. However, the implementation of several projects has faced delays, risking the plan’s timeline and the future stability of Việt Nam’s energy supply.