Cannot reach the target of export for 2016

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The highest growth commodity is vegetables with an increase of 30% in value.

Highlight: agriculture - fisheries

According to the latest statistics from the General Department of Vietnam Customs, export turnover in October 2016 reached $US 15.4 billion, a decrease of 0.1% compared to September 2016. In the first 10 months of 2016, the total export turnover of Vietnam had reached $US 143.9 billion, an increase of 7% over the same period last year. In particular, FDI enterprises reached $US 100.88, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.

The highlight of export in the first 10 months of 2016 was a breakthrough in agriculture and fisheries when the export turnover in the first 10 months of 2016 was $US 18.3 billion, an increase of 7.9%. This is a relatively high growth rate compared to the same period last year (in the first 10 months of 2015, it decreased 9.7%), according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

The highest growth commodity is vegetables with an increase of 30% in value, reaching $US 1.992 billion, followed by coffee with an export of 1.518 million tons, equivalent to $US 2.758 billion, an increase of nearly 40% in volume and 25.3% in value. The export of pepper in the first 10 months of 2016 reached $US 1.288 billion, an increase of 35.4% in volume and 15.1% in value. Cashews also increased 5.8% in volume and 16.9% in value with a total value of $US 2.34 billion. And aquatic products increased by 6.4% with a turnover of $US 5.73 billion.

However, the export of agriculture and fishery products is still facing difficulties due to technical barriers when exporting to major markets such as Japan and the US. In addition, China has continued to add more barriers to many agricultural products and aquatic products from Vietnam. Even, some items from Vietnam are not included on the list to be allowed to import such as salmon and cassava, which has significantly affected Vietnam export.

The products of the processing industry which were considered as the power of Vietnam export several years ago have leveled off. In the first 10 months of 2016, the export in the processing industry reached $US 115.3 billion, an increase of 8.9% compared to the same period last year. This is a low growth, less than half of the same period of 2015 (in the same period last year, it increased by 17.6%). In the group, there are 16 items with export turnover of more than $US 1 billion, however, the main export items such as textiles, footwear and furniture have a much lower growth rate over the same period, which has led to a decrease of the group.

The causes are reduction of consumer demand and fierce competition of countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar, etc. In addition, the export of some commodities such as chemicals, fertilizers, plastic products, clinker bricks and cement have declined in both volume and price due to the reduction of consumers’ demand and fierce competition of China. Moreover, the goods of FDI companies have also declined in volume of export. For example, telephones and components have only increased by 10.4%, while in the previous year, it increased by more than 20%, which has caused the group's export turnover to decrease.

Late solutions but still needed

With less than 2 months left to the end of 2016, Vietnam export has nearly reached $US 144 billion. Therefore, to fulfill the export target of $US 181 billion assigned by the National Assembly at the beginning of the year, the Ministry of Industry and Trade needs to accomplish very difficult tasks. Because, the highest monthly export reached has been only $US 17 billion. However, in order to achieve the target of export for 2016, Vietnam export needs to reach at least $US 18-20 billion per month for the remainder of the year.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Vietnam's economy in the first 10 months of 2016 has changed, but still faces many difficulties and challenges: The global economy has slowly recovered; public investment was not really effective and domestic enterprises still faced many difficulties. Thus, the Ministry of Industry and Trade needs to focus on specific issues to solve the difficulties and problems of enterprises.

In addition to securing input materials for manufacturing industries such as electricity and coal, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has actively cooperated with Ministries to seek solutions to remove difficulties and promote export under Official Letter No. 6907 / BCT-CNK of July 27, 2016 which was reported to the Prime Minister. Accordingly, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is focusing on solving difficulties for export production of enterprises, such as: eliminating Circular 37/2015/ TT-BCT on the inspection of formaldehyde content of textile products, amending the provisions related to energy labeling and chemicals and reforming administrative procedures to reduce inconvenience to businesses.

Along with that, the solutions to overcome difficulties and promote export for major export sectors such as seafood, vegetables, rice, wood and wooden products, textiles, footwear, cassava and cassava products are under construction. Specifically, for seafood, Vietnam needs to continue to closely monitor movement and persuade the US House of Representatives to remove the Resolution on monitoring catfish; and promote the coordination between AQSIQ and the Ministry of Industry and Trade to solve the difficulties and problems of enterprises in the field of seafood. For vegetable products, Vietnam should focus on solving the technical barriers and speeding up risk analysis and phytosanitary regulations (PRA) to export to China (green grapefruit, durian and mangosteen), Taiwan (mango, longan, pomelo and rambutan); Japan (red dragon fruit and litchi); Korea (breast milk fruit, longan, lychee and rambutan); Australia (dragon fruit); and the US (mango and apples).

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Although there are many solutions, the target of export is unlikely to be achieved. However, these solutions still need to be implemented to promote production and export for 2017.