2021 GDP growth may reach 6.72% in best-case scenario: Conference

Co-hosted by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecasting (NCIF), the “Vietnam’s Economy in the Medium Term 2021 - 2025: Recovery and Growth Accelerates” conference brought together a large number of economists, business leaders, and representatives of international organisations and business associations to discuss the outlook for Vietnam’s economy over the next five years and the actions needed to turn the expected rebound from COVID-19 into a sustainable economic recovery.

In his opening remarks, Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong said the pandemic has presented both challenges and opportunities to Vietnam during the 2021-2025 period.

There have been many emerging trends reshaping international financial flows, trade, and investment, he noted, adding that the pandemic has also triggered a shift in global supply chains, creating challenges and opportunities for any economic rebound in the long run.

It is especially significant for the country to take advantage of new opportunities to revive its economy this year and create breakthroughs over the next five years in order to meet the goals set by the Party and the State, he said.

UNDP Resident Representative in Vietnam Caitlin Wiesen said Vietnam was one of only a few countries in the world to post GDP growth in 2020, of 2.91%, and for the first time it was ranked by the UNDP as among the High Human Development Group, with growth of 46% in its Human Development Index (HDI) during the 1990-2019 period, one of the most rapid transitions to high human development in history.

She went on to say that Vietnam will launch a new five-year Socio-Economic Development Plan and ten-year Socio-Economic Development Strategy that will establish a broad vision for economic recovery in the short term, in the context of continuing global uncertainty.

The strategic policy choices Vietnam makes will define its ability to turn the COVID-19 rebound into a bold recovery in 2021 and beyond. Equally, it will determine the ability of the country to accelerate policies to achieve the medium-term aspirations of realizing the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and attaining high-middle income country status by 2030, she added.

Two scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth this year were introduced at the conference. According to NCIF Deputy Director Dr Dang Duc Anh, the base-line scenario forecasts the economy to grow at about 6.17% and CPI to stand at 3.8% if the global economy rebounds and COVID-19 is gradually brought under control.

In the best-case scenario, GDP growth will reach 6.72% and CPI around 4.2% if the global economy recovers at a pace faster than expected.