The economy can achieve the GDP growth target of about 7 percent

Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong, General Director of the General Statistics Office.

Storm No. 3 (Yagi) has caused serious and heavy damage to production and business activities, especially agricultural production, services, and tourism. How these consequences will affect the economic growth target in 2024?

Storm No. 3, which hit the North in early September 2024, is considered the strongest storm in the past 30 years, directly affecting the lives and production and business of 26 provinces and cities in the Northern mountainous region and the Red River Delta with varying degrees of damage. Many economic sectors have suffered damage due to whirlwinds, floods, landslides, etc., the most serious being agricultural, forestry and fishery production activities. Many rice and crop areas were flooded; livestock, poultry and aquatic products were swept away; many traffic works were sunk, eroded, and infrastructure was seriously affected; many factories were flooded, had their roofs blown off, and were damaged.

According to initial estimates, Typhoon Yagi caused damage of more than VND80 trillion to the northern localities. Of the three regions, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector was most severely affected, but because the proportion of added value in the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector of the 26 provinces affected by the storm only accounted for about 20% of the country's added value, the impact on the growth of the entire sector was not too high.

The industry and construction sector were also affected because many essential works, roads, bridges, power grids, and water and electricity supply systems were severely damaged. Power outages and communication outages during storms and floods caused production disruptions in industrial zones. However, infrastructure damage was only calculated in changes in economic assets, not in production activities during the period, so the level of damage to production activities was not significant. On the other hand, manufacturing enterprises proactively restored production and business immediately after the storm to meet orders, so the processing and manufacturing industry still had quite impressive growth to compensate for the damage to agriculture.

The service sector was also affected by storm No. 3, but the level of damage was not high because the storm did not occur during the peak tourist season. In addition, some service sectors had good growth supporting production and export such as transportation, warehousing, information and communication, etc. The growth rate of the service sector in the third quarter of 2024 reached 7.51 percent, making a large contribution to economic growth.

Thus, in the third quarter of 2024, with the bright spot being the manufacturing and processing industry, the service sector maintained stable growth, and the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector did not decline sharply, helping the economic growth reach 7.4 percent, consistent with the upper limit of the scenario set by the Government's Resolution of 6.5-7 percent.

Based on the economic performance results of the third quarter of 2024 and the first 9 months of 2024, how does the General Statistics Office assess the possibility of achieving the economic growth target for the whole year of 2024 according to the Government Resolution of 6.5 – 7 percent?

In my opinion, the possibility of achieving the economic growth target for the whole year of 2024 is feasible. In order to achieve the annual growth target of 6.5 percent, the fourth quarter of 2024 needs to increase by 5.7 percent; to achieve the target of 6.8 percent, the fourth quarter of 2024 needs to increase by 6.76 percent; to achieve the target of 7 percent, the fourth quarter of 2024 needs to increase by 7.5 percent.

With the growth results of the third quarter of 2024 and the first 9 months, along with the assessment of the growth trend in the last months of the year, the economic growth for the whole year of 2024 is likely to achieve the upper bound target of the growth scenario.

However, the Vietnamese economy still faces many difficulties and challenges. Firstly, the world economy still has many potential risks and instabilities. Secondly, natural disasters and pandemics are still constant threats. Thirdly, a number of key economic sectors have not yet fully recovered from the pandemic and the impact of natural disasters. Fourthly, inflationary pressure remains and needs to be tightly controlled. Fifthly, the competitiveness of a number of businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, is still limited.

What solutions need to be implemented to achieve this goal, madam?

In order to achieve the growth target, it requires the joint efforts of the whole society, the harmonious coordination between ministries, sectors, localities and the initiative and creativity of the business community. In addition, the General Statistics Office also proposed key solutions, which are considered solid pillars for sustainable economic growth.

In particular, macroeconomic stability is an important foundation and it is necessary to continue to maintain exchange rate stability, control inflation, and ensure the major balance of the economy. At the same time, it is extremely necessary to closely monitor the price movements of essential goods, ensure adequate supply of goods, and implement price stabilization measures.

In particular, it is necessary to avoid adjusting the prices of goods and services managed by the State at a time when people are overcoming the consequences of natural disasters.

In addition, it is also necessary to promote domestic consumption such as promoting trade promotion activities, connecting supply and demand, strongly developing e-commerce, increasing promotion and consumption of Vietnamese goods. As one of the main growth drivers - exports also need to focus on maintaining the market, promoting exports to large and potential markets, effectively promoting signed free trade agreements, and diversifying markets. Regarding investment, it is necessary to further increase public investment and attract high-quality FDI.

Along with that, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity to forecast and warn of natural disasters, and build a timely warning information system. In particular, it is necessary to have a plan for agricultural production suitable to weather conditions, prevent pandemics, and ensure safety for people. In my opinion, the key factor to ensure the success of the above solutions is to improve the effectiveness of state management, in which promoting the role of the leader, at the same time tightening discipline and administrative discipline, strictly implementing working regulations, publicity, transparency, creating an equal production and business environment, continuing to reform administrative procedures, and promoting digital transformation.

Thank you, madam!