Vietnam's economy has overcome the most difficult period

	Reducing pressure on inflation control and price market in 2024
	Vietnamese economy recovers last year: Expert

At the Forum, speakers shared solutions for economic growth in 2024. Photo: T.D

Many bright spots

Information at the 2024 Macroeconomic Forum with the theme "Vietnam's economy overcomes headwinds", experts assessed that in 2023, the economy will still have many difficulties but from the opposite perspective, there are many bright spots. has also appeared, creating growth conditions for 2024.

According to Associate Professor. Dr. Nguyen Duc Trung, Rector of Ho Chi Minh City University of Banking in 2023, Vietnam's economy has many bright spots such as the State Bank reducing operating interest rates 4 times; Credit growth is 13.7%, in line with macroeconomic balances; The adjusted exchange rate is at 2.89%, helping Vietnam overcome many external shocks.

Public investment was disbursed at an impressive level, reaching over 81% of the plan. The Government has taken many drastic solutions to ensure the 2024 economic growth target of 6-6.5%.

Mr. Nguyen Khac Quoc Bao, Deputy Director of Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics, also pointed out the bright spots that will appear in 2023: the world's inflation trend has decreased, creating more room for supportive policies. Vietnam's economy has gone through periods of peak inflation, and recent forecasts suggest that inflation will decrease.

Another factor is that the recovery of tourism has increased but because before the epidemic it is still far from the peak. Therefore, the growth potential for the tourism industry is still very good, if there is a stimulus program to open up domestic demand to recover.

Mr. Nguyen Khac Quoc Bao believes that the aggregate demand of the world economy and Vietnam will recover better in 2024. World aggregate demand recovers because inventories of the US and EU have peaked at the end of 2023. Inventories have increased at its peak and has decreased, opening up export opportunities for Vietnam.

Need a comprehensive solution

But according to experts, for Vietnam's economy to grow in 2024, many comprehensive solutions must be implemented.

According to Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, policies still have to respond to difficulties and overcome them. We need to have a long-term vision, take care of long-term policies and take early action to reduce short-term and immediate hardships.

Mr. Tran Anh Tuan, Head of the Ho Chi Minh City Enterprise Management Innovation Board, said that Vietnam needs to solve the problem of investment procedures. Cash flow into the economy is slow despite improvements. Currently, a quick procedure, for small projects, the normal procedure time is double the implementation and construction time. This leads to large delays, with no immediate impact on the economy. Stimulating demand takes many measures, from monetary to fiscal policy. There are many economic recovery programs implemented from 2021 but still slowly.

Accordingly, the investment policy mechanism needs to be shortened to the investment sequence. If we are too cautious to the point of self-restraint, it will be difficult to have a breakthrough in stimulating consumption, production, and export.

In addition, according to experts, the issue of economic growth model must have a longer-term policy, if we follow the path that will only have stability in the short term. Vietnam's economy recovered after the Covid-19 period. Public investment is promoted, but it is also necessary to calculate the long-term effects on growth and prepare resources to absorb the project. Regarding consumption, current consumption is based on real estate, tourism, and infrastructure. However, consumption is not stable and cyclical, the problem is how to contribute to make it more sustainable...