Việt Nam's GDP predicted to surpass Singapore's in 2029

Bike production at Thống Nhất Company Limited. — VNA/VNS Photo Trần Việt

Việt Nam’s GDP is forecast to hit US$450 billion in 2024, placing it 34th globally, according to the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

With an average annual growth rate of 5.8 per cent over the next five years, Việt Nam's GDP is expected to surpass Singapore's, reaching $676 billion by 2029.

By 2039, Việt Nam’s GDP could rise to $1.41 trillion, ranking 25th worldwide and becoming Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, following Indonesia and the Philippines. This significant milestone underscores Việt Nam’s resilience amid global challenges.

CEBR projects Việt Nam will maintain strong growth compared to regional peers such as Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore. While global GDP is expected to double from $110 trillion in 2024 to $221 trillion by 2039, Việt Nam is anticipated to outpace many of its ASEAN neighbours in economic expansion.

In terms of GDP per capita, Việt Nam is set to cross the upper-middle-income threshold in 2024 with a projected per capita GDP of $4,469. By 2025, this figure is expected to rise to $4,783, officially classifying Việt Nam as an upper-middle-income country.

Although Việt Nam’s per capita GDP lags behind Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand, it is forecasted to climb to fourth place among ASEAN-6 nations by 2026, overtaking Indonesia and the Philippines, with a per capita GDP of $6,140, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

To maintain its upward trajectory, Việt Nam must focus on improving labour productivity, investing in education, and advancing technology. These efforts are essential to narrowing the income gap with neighbouring countries and solidifying its position as a regional economic leader.