The risk of State budget deficit 12.5% compared to estimate

VCN- State revenue of 2020 has an estimated deficit of VND 189.2 billion (decreasing by 12.5%) compared to the estimate. The total spending also decreases 3.5%, whileoverspending tends to increase by 1.55%. These are notable issues in the State budget revenue in the last months of the year.
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Minister of Finance Dinh Tien Dung reports to the National Assembly

Recurrent expenditure increased for pandemic prevention

On October 20, Minister of Finance Dinh Tien Dung said that State budget revenue for the year is estimated at VND 1,323.1 billion, a deficit of VND 189.2 trillion (down 12.5%) compared with the estimate.

The estimated total State budget expenditure in 2020 is VND 1,686.2 trillion, falling VND 60.89 trillion (down by 3.5%) compared to the estimate. Amid the Covid-19 pandemic anddifficult State revenue collection, the Government has directed to cut unnecessary expenditures and closely control spending and save within the estimate approved by the National Assembly, improve financial discipline, strengthen resources for Covid-19 prevention and control, support people and businessesin difficulties, promptly overcome consequences of storms, floods, natural disasters, diseases and implement other important, urgent and unexpected expenditures, contributing to the maintenance and socio-economic development, ensuring national defence and security.

Recurrent expenditure for 2020 is estimated at VND 1,068.5 trillion, rising VND 12 trillion (up 1.1%) compared to the estimate, the increase is mainly due to the use of provisions for pandemic prevention and recovery of the consequences of natural disasters and the implementation of issued social security policies.

The Government has implemented many drastic measures to accelerate disbursement of public investment capital, the disbursed capital in the first nine months of the year is about 57.2% of the estimate, and disbursed capital for the whole year is estimated at VND 495.36 trillion, up VND 24.76 trillion (up 5.3%) compared to the estimate.

Thus, the State budget deficit in 2020 is estimated at 4.99% of GDP, an increase of 1.55% compared to the estimate. The targets of public debt by the end of 2020 are under the safety.

Also, the Minister of Finance said that the total State budget revenue in 2021 is VND 1,343.33 trillion, total State budget spending is VND 1,687 trillion, and the state budget deficit is VND 343.67 trillion.

Due to the revision in GDP targets to develop State budget estimates for 2020, GDP is expected to raise by 25.4%, accordingly, targets of State budget revenues and expenditures, overspending, public debt to GDP from 2021 onwards will be revised down.

Pay attention to direct repayment obligations

Chairman of the NA’s Finance-Budget Committee Nguyen Duc Hai said regarding the State budget revenue collection, although revenue management agency has strengthened the inspection, examination and handling violations and tax arrears, accelerated the reform of administrative procedures, fully implemented solutions to perform the proposed collection policy, but due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, revenues from taxes, fees, charges and from crude oil have failed to reach the estimate assigned by the National Assembly, the tax arrears are still high, revenues from many major localities is lower than the estimate.

The inspection agency has proposed the Government evaluate more closely the State budget revenue, especially revenue from the sale of State shares, divestment of State capital in enterprises and economic organisations, and from crude oil to provide appropriate solutions on State revenue, continue to drastically direct the implementation of measures to reach the highest State budget revenue in the remaining months of 2020.

Regarding State budget expenditure, the NA’s Finance-Budget Committee said amid Covid-19 pandemic and difficult State revenue collection, the Government has directed to cut unnecessary expenditures and control spending and save within the estimate approved by the National Assembly, improve financial discipline, strengthen resources for Covid-19 prevention and control, support people and businessesin difficulties, promptly overcome consequences of storms, floods, natural disasters, diseases, and implement other important, urgent and unexpected expenditure, contributing to the maintenance and socio-economic development, ensuring national defence and security.

However, the inspection agency emphasised the disbursement progress of public investment was slow, although the Government took many drastic measures and the transfer of public investment capital was slow and not drastic, currently the capital allocation has not been completed and inconsistent with the provisions of law.

Hai suggested the Government pay special attention to the direct repayment obligation of the Government which may reach 25% of the total State budget revenue, which is a danger sign, causing risks and reducing the national financial security.

The NA’s Finance-Budget Committee basically agreed with the general targets on the State budget estimate for 2021 and requested the Government explain more clearly, because the implementation process will generate many complex problems related to public debt safety and national financial security.

By Hong Van/Ngoc Loan

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