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With the appearance of a series of “huge” recruits such as BSR, PV Oil, PV Power, Idico, VEAM..., the market in the last months of the year will become more unpredictable.

After continuous net buying from the beginning of the year, the September 2017 was the first net selling month of foreign investors. The total value of net selling on both stock exchanges in September was nearly 691 billion vnd, of which the net selling on the HSX was 193.7 billion vnd. Excluding the divestment in Tien Phong Plastic Joint Stock Company, foreign investors remained net sellers but not significantly. On the HSX, 8 of 18 groups were net sellers in September 2017. Real estate remained net sellers with the net selling value of more than 400 billion vnd.

The net sales focused on NVL, KBC, NLG, ROS, KDH, and FLC. In the case of the FLC, after almost 3 years appeared on the list of VanEck Vectors Vietnam ETF, it was disqualified in the third quarter. The smallest proportion in the basket is not in the top 98% of the market cap made the FLC be eliminated. On HNX, the noteworthy point is Thai shareholders' The Nawaplastic Industries (Saraburi) Co. Ltd announced its plan to divest from Tien Phong Plastic Joint Stock Company after five years of investment. The timing of capital withdrawal is from September 25 to October 20, 2017. These divestments led the construction and building materials group to be the strongest selling group on the HNX in the last month. More than 18 million shares of Tien Phong Plastic Joint Stock Company will be sold in October, so the HNX will possibly continue to witness the foreign net sale for 2 consecutive months.

These factors have made the experts of Viet Dragon Securities Company concern about the less enthusiastic participation of foreign investors. Involvement of foreign investors is still considered to be a great help for domestic investors. Thus, the trading activity of foreign investors still needs to be closely observed in October to confirm the “fear” of foreign investors as facing the current high valuation of VNIndex.

Expect in IPO season, listing by the end of the year.

Despite concerns about foreign investors, experts still expect the IPO of many companies with large-cap in the fourth quarter. Some hot names such as BSR, PV Oil, PV Power, Idico, VEAM... In the past, there were quite a lot of companies that had price increases strongly after IPO such as PLX, VPB, VJC... So, the IPO is expected to attract the attention of many investors. Accordingly, experts of the BVSC believe that a part of the capital flows in the market listing will be withdrawn to participate in these new IPOs, affecting the source of money on the stock market.

In addition, according to Circular No. 115/2016/TT-BTC on amending and supplementing some articles of Circular No. 196/2011/TT-BTC dated December 26, 2011, of the Ministry of Finance, enterprises after IPO will automatically be listed on UpCom after 20 working days from the expiry date of the payment of share purchase through auction. Thus, it is likely that in the fourth quarter, the market listing will welcome many large companies to the stock exchange after the IPO. With historical happenings, many new-listings often have strong fluctuations in prices and market movements in the last months of the year will be more difficult to predict the movements of the index are strongly influenced by this group of stocks.

For the banking sector, after the VIB, VPB, and KLB listed in the first half of the year, investors are waiting for more banks to be listed in the coming time. Particularly, LienVietPostBank postponed the listing on many occasions and will likely be listed on Upcom in October. In the OTC market, banks' shares planned to be listed from now until the end of the year has been chasing with high prices, including the case Techcombank (TCB) which has traded on the OTC market with prices from 37,000-39,000 VND/ share, increasing nearly 3 times compared to the beginning of the year.

In addition, many stocks of other banks have plans to list but have not yet had a specific time and are trading around the face value. The market movement of LienVietPostBank and Techcombank in the fourth quarter will have a certain impact on banking stocks, although the impact will not be too large due to their previous reflection on the OTC market.

Even so, experts say that the market is likely to experience fluctuations, falling and increasing with the trend of slight adjustment of the index in the fourth quarter. Although the business results in the third quarter still play a certain role, it will be unlikely to create a significant impact as the first two quarters of this year, as reflected over time.

Accordingly, the cash flow will look for new stories or temporarily stop to wait for disbursements at low prices for old stories but it is updated and look further into the prospects of 2018. The BVSC suggested for investors of some potential stocks such as oil and gas (if the scenario of WTI oil price exceeded 55 USD/barrel), banks (continue the story of bad debt recovery and the recovery cycle of the business results), medicine (the outlook in the medium-term is positive after adjustment), real estate (the net profit is often in the last quarter of the year, however, there will have high divisions between enterprises).