Seafood falls out of "ten-billion-dollar export group"

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Chart: T. Binh

Sharp decline

Although 2023 has not yet ended, with recent results and developments, there are almost no mutations that can help this key commodity industry hit the target of US$10 billion.

According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to November 15, seafood exports declined 19.8% or US$1.93 billion year-on-year to US$7.82 billion.

With the above results, the average monthly revenue of this industry is only about US$745 million. To hit the 10 billion target, in the last 1.5 months of the year, seafood exports must earn US$2.18 billion, equivalent to more than US$1.45 billion/month.

This is an impossible number, because it is not only double the average result achieved in the first more than ten months of the year, but in the history of seafood export, the seafood industry has never recorded such high turnover.

For example, 2022, a record-setting year for export turnover reaching US$10.92 billion, the average monthly turnover only reached US$900 million.

With recent results and recent signs of improvement, it is expected that seafood export turnover in 2023 will reach or exceed US$9 billion, down US$1.92 billion compared to 2022 but slightly higher than UU$8.9 billion in 2021.

Although failing to reach the target equal to the result in 2022, the figure of US$9 billion is still a remarkable level in the difficult and challenging context of the global and domestic economy.

The major export markets of the seafood industry are the United States, China, Japan, the EU...

Expect the sprint stage

According to statistical data of the General Department of Customs, seafood exports have recently had positive changes, as in October, the turnover reached more than US$841 million, an increase of 3.4% from September.

Recently, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) estimated that seafood export in November will continue to maintain the same number as October.

Thus, in the last 2 months, seafood export turnover has been higher than the average level of the previous months. .

Notably, the key export products of the seafood industry all maintained remarkable rise in November. Specifically, shrimp exports rose by 4%, tuna by 26%, pangasius by 12%, and squid by 4% and octopus by 3%, other marine fishes by 4%...

By the end of November, pangasius exports are estimated to at nearly US$1.7 billion and seeing more positive signs in some markets such as China, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, England... In addition to main product is pangasius fillets, and by-products such as dried pangasius bladder and pangasius patties are of interest to many markets such as the United States, China, Malaysia, Singapore...

For shrimp products, by the end of November, it is estimated to reach US$3.15 billion. According to VASEP, China will likely maintain a strong import trend in the last quarter of 2023 to serve the peak consumption season of December, January and February 2024. Along with the demand for shrimp in the Southeast Asia and the Far East are expected to improve at the end of the year during Christmas, New Year and Lunar New Year, this is a favorable signal to increase the turnover of this product.

The third most important product of the seafood industry is tuna with an estimated 11-month turnover of about US$774 million.

VASEP evaluates that, compared to other products, tuna has a more positive signal. Although exports to the United States fell by 35%, many markets such as the EU, Thailand, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Korea, Philippines, and Japan are tending to increase imports of Vietnamese tuna.

Focus on promoting seafood exports to China

With the above calculation, VASEP estimates that shrimp exports in 2023 will earn about US$3.4 billion USD (down 21% compared to last year); Pangasius is estimated to reach US$1.8 billion USD (down 25%); tuna reached US$850 million (down 15%).