Seafood exports in the second half of the year will be weaker

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Seafood enterprises try to process to increase export. Source: Internet.

Export growth in major markets

The excellent results of seafood export in the first half of 2022 stem from two main products, shrimp and pangasius. In particular, pangasius has a relatively high growth rate. As a result, pangasius exports grew in most major markets.

According to statistics from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the total value of pangasius exports reached US$1.4 billion, up 82.4% over the same period last year. Typically, the China - Hong Kong market has an export growth rate of more than 2 times. In the first 6 months of 2022, despite having to deal with China's "Zero Covid" policy, Vietnamese pangasius exporters have made efforts to overcome and improve export quality. The total export value of pangasius to China - Hong Kong market reached US$427.6 million, up 107% over the same period last year.

Also growing very high, pangasius exports to the US market by the end of June 2022, reached US$356.4 million, up 111% over the same period last year, accounting for 25% of the total export value. The third largest pangasius export market is the CPTPP market. In the first six months of this year, the total export value of pangasius to this market reached US$180 million, up 66.3% over the same period last year. In which, notably the Mexican market, the largest import market in the bloc with US$62.4 million, up 68.5%. With this result, Vietnam's pangasius export value to Mexico has surpassed Thailand and Brazil - which are considered two more potential markets.

Similarly, the main export product shrimp also had a very good growth rate in the first months of 2022. In the first 6 months of 2022, shrimp exports reached US$2.3 billion, up 33% over the same period and accounting for 40% of total seafood exports. In particular, the US market has a good growth rate, and the import demand of this market is quite stable. Besides, the Japanese market has a continuous positive growth rate ranging from 6%-23%. Accumulating 6 months, shrimp exports to this market reached nearly US$333 million, up 15% over the same period.

Similar to the Japanese market, shrimp exports to the EU were quite stable in the first 6 months of this year. Shrimp exports to this market in June still maintained a stable growth rate, up 37% to over $74 million. In 6 months, exports to this market reached US$378 million, up 48% over the same period. Demand in the EU recovered after Covid-19, and food inflation was high, so despite difficulties such as soaring sea freight rates and high container costs, Vietnamese businesses took advantage of promoting shrimp exports to this market.

Starting to decelerate from June

After strong growth in the first half of the year, exports of two key products showed signs of deceleration. Notably, shrimp products have decreased since June, this is the first month of this year, and shrimp exports recorded negative growth, after continuously growing positive double digits in the previous 5 months. In June, shrimp export value decreased slightly by 1% to nearly US$416 million. In 6 months, shrimp exports reached US$2.3 billion, up 31% over the same period last year. According to Ms. Kim Thu, shrimp market expert of VASEP, the limited supply of raw shrimp in the country and low consumption demand from the US and EU markets are considered the reasons for shrimp export results.

The unusually strong increase in shrimp export turnover in the first months of this year is also attributed to the increase in freight costs, contributing to the increase in selling prices. The consequences of Covid-19 at the end of 2021 caused many shrimp businesses to reduce processing and speed up repayment of orders at the beginning of this year, and rising inflation also partly affected shrimp consumption prices.

According to the analysis of Kim Thu, in the top four main markets of Vietnamese shrimp, exports to the US decreased, and exports to China did not grow as strongly as the previous month. Specifically, shrimp exports to the US in June decreased for the first time since the beginning of the year. Shrimp exports to the US recorded good growth from the beginning of the year to April. In May, exports started to slow down and fell relatively sharply in June. In June, shrimp exports to the US reached over $93 million, down 36% compared to the same period last year. Demand for the US market is forecast to increase slightly after September to serve the demand of the year-end festival.

The growth rate of Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU in the second quarter of this year is lower than in the first quarter of this year. Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU in the coming months will continue to be affected by inflation in Europe. In Europe, the EUR depreciated against the USD. The economies of European countries are also dealing with the crisis from the Russia-Ukraine war, the cost of gasoline, and the price of goods soaring. The EU's shrimp import demand in the following months may slow down and is expected to increase strongly in the last months of the year.

According to VSEP leaders, the situation of shrimp exports in the last 6 months of the year will not be as prosperous as at the beginning of the year. Enterprises continue to face difficulties in terms of raw materials and remaining challenges from the first half of the year.

However, the results of the first 6 months of the year are considered the foundation for the industry to accelerate, plus the flexibility of shrimp farmers, the appropriate market strategy of enterprises, and our country's shrimp export turnover in the year. is still expected to grow at least 10%, reaching about US$4.2 billion.

Along with shrimp, pangasius exports are also forecast by experts to decelerate from the third quarter of 2022. Notably, in the past two months, the growth of pangasius exports to the US market has begun to slow down. According to importers, the situation of seafood consumption in general, including pangasius in the US, has shown signs of slowing down.

Inflation in the US is at a four-decade high. At chain stores and convenience stores, sales of frozen seafood were negatively affected by rising inflation, but not as seriously as fresh sales. The US seafood warehouses are still full. Therefore, it is possible that in the next quarter, pangasius exports to the US will grow slower than in previous quarters. The second half of the year will be more difficult, it is expected that seafood export turnover will be lower than the first half of the year.