Seafood exports expected to earn US$ 10 billion in 2024

Seafood export enterprises navigate through "storms"

Shrimp exports is expected to reach US$4 billion in 2024 .

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the seafood production and export in 2024 will continue face difficulties. In addition, there will be other challenges that will slow down the ability to recover exports next year. VASEP has made 10 comments on market trends and seafood export forecasts in 2024.

Inflation in major countries has been curbed, the world economy has bottomed out but slowly restored, affecting demand for seafood consumption. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, the fighting in the Middle East and other geopolitical issues around the world certainly affect global trade, including seafood exports.

As a result, transportation costs increase and input product prices for aquaculture and seafood processing rise. It may also lead to a new inflationary storm that will affect seafood consumption demand in 2024.

Besides, the cycle of price reduction of many aquatic species may continue until the end of the first half of 2024.

The demand for imports from the US market sees the slow recovery there is an increasing trend of importing shrimp with low price from Ecuador. The shrimp exports to the US will be more difficult if anti-subsidy tax is imposed.

The demand for imports from Chinese market sees the stronger recovery but the imports is paid with low prices, causing difficulties to compete, and feed costs continue to be a big challenge for both the shrimp and pangasius farming industries.

According to the analysis of Ms. Le Hang, VASEP Communications Director, shrimp products continue to compete with the products of Ecuador and India in terms of price and supply, the oversupply situation may continue until the first half of 2024. Ecuador and India increase their market share in the US, China, the EU and Japan, while increasing processed shrimp exports although the proportion is still low.

For the pangasius exports, the inventory of this major item in the US, China, and the EU markets is insignificant. Export prices will increase again in these markets. In addition to frozen fillets, the trend of importing Pangasius value-added products and by-products (fish maw, pangasius patties) continues to increase.

Regarding seafood, the IUU yellow card continues to be a challenge. If the card is not resolved in 2024, it will cause the stagnation of exports to the EU because procedures for confirming and certifying exploited seafood still show obstacles due to factors such as lack of human resources and infrastructure not to meet requirements. Industries such as tuna, squid, octopus and marine fish are seriously affected.

Regarding consumption, market demand focuses on cheaper product segments such as canned fish, raw fish for processing canned fish, dried fish, and dried shrimp.

The trend of outsourcing will grow after China bans the import of Japanese seafood, so that Japanese factories find processing partners in Vietnam. In addition, businesses may increase the import of raw materials for export production and processing for the Japanese and US markets.

Ms. Le Hang said that it forecasted that Vietnam's seafood exports will gradually restore in 2024 and become more positive in the second half of the year. With adaptation and adjustment to the market context, seafood businesses will help the industry's export revenue recover to US$9.5 billion-US$10 billion in 2024. The shrimp industry aims to achieve target of US$4 billion, pangasius at about US$1.9 billion, and the remaining seafood products are forecast to earn about US$3.6 - 3.8 billion.