Regaining export growth momentum in the last months of the year

Export turnover basically kept increasing momentum. Illustration: Vietnamplus

Export basically maintained their upward momentum and recovered

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the first 6 months of the year, domestic enterprises have made great efforts to restore production and business in difficult conditions. Export turnover basically kept the upward momentum and was estimated at US$ 164.45 billion after 6 months, recovering 87.9% over the same period in 2022.

It can be clearly seen that the export of vegetables, fruits, and rice was a bright spot in the country's exports in the first 6 months of the year when it achieved a double-digit increase. In which, rice export was estimated at US$ 2.3 billion, up 22.2% in volume, and 34.7% in value over the same period in 2022, making an important contribution to the growth of the agricultural industry and the economy. at the same time, fully meeting consumer demand, stabilizing domestic rice and paddy prices, and ensuring national food security and farmers' interests. Meanwhile, fruit and vegetable export was estimated at US$ 2.75 billion, up 64.2% over the same period last year.

In 6 months, there were 27 items with export turnover of over US$ 1 billion (decreased by 2 items over the same period), accounting for 90.1% of total export turnover (there were 5 export items of over US$ 10 billion, accounting for 57.8%). Regarding the commodity export market in the first 6 months of 2023, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market with an estimated turnover of US$ 44.2 billion, accounting for 26.9% of the country's export turnover; followed by China with US$ 25.6 billion, accounting for 15.6%; EU market reached US$ 21.6 billion, accounting for 13.1%; ASEAN market reached US$ 16.3 billion, accounting for 9.9%; Japan reached US$ 11 billion, accounting for 6.7%; Korea reached US$ 10.9 billion, accounting for 6.6%. Notably, some export markets recovered positively to nearly the same period last year such as India (95.7%), Japan (96.7%), and China (97.8%). Some new markets recorded high growth such as Argentina (up 35% over the same period), Saudi Arabia (up 67%), and Algeria (up 91%).

According to the report of Trading Economics updated to April 2023 for 16 major economies in the world, up to 13/16 countries (accounting for 81.3%) experienced a decline in export; 12/16 countries (accounting for 75%) also saw a decline in imports in April.

Therefore, the growth of Vietnam's import and export turnover in the first 6 months of the year is also considered a bright spot in the context of a decline in world aggregate demand. At the same time, Vietnam's merchandise trade balance reached US$ 12.3 billion, the highest in the last 10 years, contributing to Vietnam's economic growth. Besides, the fact that China is the market with the largest two-way trade with Vietnam has really opened up the economy, it will also be a positive factor for Vietnam's import and export of goods, especially for groups of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic products.

Striving to increase export turnover by about 6%

Besides those rare bright spots, in general, exports are still facing many difficulties when export turnover in the first 6 months of the year decreased by 12.1% over the same period in the context of slow growth in global trade when the export of goods to key markets all decreased compared to the same period last year, such as export to the US market decreased by 22.6%, the EU down 10.1%; China down 2.2%; Korea down 10.2%; Japan down 3.3%; ASEAN down 8.7%...

Besides, export turnover of most products in the group of processing and manufacturing industries decreased, including key export items such as textiles down by 15.3%; footwear of all kinds down by 15.2%; phones and accessories down by 17.9%; wood and wood products down 28.8%, all kinds of fertilizers down 45.6%...

“Some export industries such as seafood, wood and wood products, iron and steel, and plastic products continue to face pressure on trade remedy investigations, which has created difficulties in export markets during the past time. Some agricultural products still rely too much on the form of exchange of residents and unofficial quotas, so there is always a potential risk of congestion at the border gate, affecting cross-border trade”, the report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated.

In the context that Vietnam's economy is still facing inflation in the last months of the year, affecting enterprises manufacturing for export; economic recession in many countries around the world; geopolitical conflicts... leading to a decline in global consumer demand (it is difficult to predict this factor in the near future), will adversely affect Vietnam's import and export activities in the last months of 2023.

Therefore, in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade determines to continue to promote export, create new orders to consume output products, promote production for businesses such as supporting businesses to take advantage of commitments in the FTAs, especially the CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA, adopt guidelines on the application of rules of origin, grant preferential certificates of origin to exploit export opportunities from the agreements. In addition, promoting negotiations and the signing of new agreements, commitments, and trade links to diversify markets, products, and supply chains. Expanding export markets for Vietnamese goods through trade promotion, Vietnam's Trade Office abroad, and e-commerce development. Organizing connections to help domestic enterprises join the supply chain of FDI enterprises, especially large global enterprises, and participate in overseas distribution systems. In 2023, despite many difficulties, the Industry and Trade industry strives to increase export turnover by about 6%, maintaining a trade surplus.

In order to promote export activities in the coming time, Mr. Nguyen Viet Phong, Director of the Department of Trade and Services Statistics (General Department of Statistics - Ministry of Planning and Investment) said that it was necessary to continue to make good use of FTAs, especially signed FTAs and efforts to promote trade, promote market diversification, diversify industries to reduce dependence on traditional markets and industries. markets in Northern Europe, Eastern Europe, Latin America... At the same time, closely monitored developments of the world economy, especially policies of major economies such as the US, China, EU, and Japan... had an impact on trade with Vietnam, thereby promptly giving warnings to the business community for timely responses.