Prioritize economic recovery in the year- end months

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The outlook for the third and fourth quarters will be brighter thanks to the bounce back of growth drivers such as exports, consumption, and public investment. Photo: Minh Duy

Investment, service and business... made a breakthrough

Amid global and domestic chaos in along with many difficulties and challenges, the socio-economic situation in July maintained a positive trend, of which, many fields achieved better results compared to the previous year.

State budget revenue in 7 months was estimated at 62.7% of the annual estimate in terms of implementing policies of reduction, extension, postponement, tax exemption, fee, land use levy and value added tax. Import and export recorded uptrend, of which exports in July increased by 2.1% compared to June; In general, the trade surplus in 7 months was 16.5 billion USD. Industrial production recovered, the manufacturing index of the whole industry in July increased by 3.9% compared to the previous month. In particular, in July, the number of newly registered enterprises increased by 4.3%, the registered capital increased by 2.4% over the same period. In July, FDI inflows rebounded after months of decline, reaching nearly $11.6 billion, up 0.8%.

Assessing the situation of attracting FDI in the past 7 months, Director of Foreign Investment Department (Ministry of Planning and Investment) Do Nhat Hoang said that Vietnam has recorded very positive indicators such as new registration total capital, adjustment and capital contribution to purchase shares, purchase of capital contributions from foreign investors reached nearly 16.24 billion USD, up 4.5% over the same period in 2022, up 8.8% compared to the first six months of the year.

In the total investment capital, there are many large investors but most of them are mid-range ones and most focus on traditional partners in the region of Vietnam such as Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan (China) and Singapore. As for foreign investors in Europe and the United States, they usually go through a third country, such as Singapore, Hong Kong (China), not directly from the United States or Europe.

“New investment capital as well as new investment projects over the same period keep increasing strongly compared to the first months of the year. The growth rate of new projects was nearly twice the growth rate of total investment capital, which shows that small and medium-sized foreign investors continue to care and believe in Vietnam's investment environment," said the director of the Foreign Investment Department.

Promote the effectiveness of support solutions

According to economic expert, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Tri Long, domestic consumption, public investment and export are considered as the "three horse" driving force to promote economic growth in the last months of the year. Among those three driving forces, demand plays dominant role which requires all essential measures to restore demand and stimulate growth. Secondly, in order to attract public investment, the Government concentrates all its energies, using a synchronous political system from the central to local levels, branches and levels. The third growth driver is trying to maintain the traditional export market and gradually open new markets.

Agreeing with the above view, Dr. Vo Tri Thanh believes that the outlook for the third and fourth quarters will be better thanks to the strong recovery of growth drivers such as exports, consumption, and public investment. To promote growth, it is necessary to continue implementing solutions to stimulate consumption, especially attracting international tourists. Along with that is the strong disbursement of public investment capital through removing bottlenecks from mechanisms and policies to the implementation progress of key projects and works with high pervasiveness. To deal with challenges faced by private investment efforts to attract foreign direct investment capital and raise the percentage of realized capital are also important solutions to contribute to overall growth.

According to Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai Hanh, Deputy Director of the National Accounts System, (General Statistics Office), the prospect of export activities at the end of the year will be more positive because of more demands of some large markets such as the US, Japan. Besides, China market, the largest two-way trade with Vietnam has really opened, which will also be a positive factor for Vietnam's import and export. In the coming time, it is necessary to have solutions to improve efficiency and well regulate the speed of customs clearance of import and export goods at the border gate area between Vietnam and China, especially for seasonal agricultural products, seafood, and at the same time promote official export in association with brand building.

In order to achieve the highest growth target for the whole year of 2023, Assoc. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Đinh Trọng Thịnh said that economic recovery should be prioritized in the last months of the year. Accordingly, domestic consumption must grow by about 20%; exports, especially processed and manufactured goods, must recover and grow at 8 - 20%.

Export orders have recovered since April 2023 and gradually increased, even in only small orders. Import and export activities have witnessed the positive uptrends which is forecasted that Vietnam's import and export turnover in 2023 may equal or even grow slightly compared to last year. Besides, over the past time, Vietnam has had many measures to stimulate demand such as: 2% reduction of Value Added Tax, reduction of fees and charges for production and business enterprises, interest rate reduction, etc. Such motivations enable enterprises to lower costs as well as implement promotions and after-sales programs ... It is predicted that and these solutions will show clear effectiveness in the last months