Pangasius exports are forecasted to bounce back at the end of the year

	Pangasius exports increase but are not optimistic
	Positive signals of Pangasius exports to high inflation markets
	Pangasius exports to the EU drops by 19%

Pangasius export processing line. Photo: TTXVN

Pangasius export value increased impressively According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in the first quarter of this year, frozen fillet products are still the main product of Vietnam's pangasius exports to markets, accounting for 80% of the proportion. By the end of March 2024, exports of frozen pangasius fillets/cuts reached 329 million USD, down 5% over the same period. Regarding export markets, China and Hong Kong (China) are still the largest consuming markets of Vietnamese pangasius, but export volume decreased sharply. In March 2024 alone, pangasius exports to China decreased by 22%; The average export price was at 1.94 USD/kg, down 1.5% compared to the end of 2023. The second largest export market of Vietnamese pangasius, the US, also recorded a decline. Specifically, in February 2024, it reached 16 million USD, down 8% compared to February 2023. However, due to a significant increase in January 2024, the total value of the first two months of 2024 still reached 34 million USD, an increase of 25% over the same period last year. However, by March 2024, pangasius exports to the US continued to decrease slightly compared to February 2023. Notably, the export turnover of VAT processed pangasius in the first 3 months of this year reached 9 million USD, up 16% over the same period, accounting for 2% proportion. Notably, VAT pangasius exports to the two largest markets, China and Hong Kong (China) and the US, both recorded impressive growth. In the first quarter of 2024, China and Hong Kong bought more than 305 thousand USD from Vietnam, an increase of 40% over the same period last year; The US imported 559 thousand USD, up 449% over the same period. In addition to the large markets of Vietnamese pangasius such as China and Hong Kong, the US, the EU, small potential markets are Thailand, the UAE, and Germany. In addition, one of the highly-recommended markets to focus on products with competitive prices to increase export turnover in 2024 is the German market. In 2023, Germany consumed 38 million USD of Vietnamese pangasius, an increase of 31% compared to 2022. Germany mainly imports frozen fillet products with a value of nearly 37 million USD, an increase of 34% compared to 2022, accounting for 97% density. Export prices are forecast to increase by about 10% According to VASEP analysis, although in the first quarter of this year, pangasius exports showed positive signs, demand in main markets has not recovered strongly. It is forecasted that the situation will improve from the 3rd and 4th quarters, leading to the price trend being adjusted to increase by at least about 10% compared to the current price. In the context of costs such as labor, gasoline, and logistics showing no signs of cooling down, setting a suitable selling price to meet the needs of each market is essential for the fishery industry to overcome difficult times and gradually increase selling prices in the coming period of 2024. Experts recommend that businesses should consider reasonable export prices and gradually adjust them by 5-10% from now until the third and fourth quarters. The cooling down inventory pressure of businesses will be an opportunity to increase production and fulfill new orders at better prices. Due to the difficult export situation from 2023, both farmers and fish farming businesses have adjusted farming output to decrease. On the other hand, unfavorable weather affects fish farming, so there is a high possibility that pangasius raw materials from now until the end of the year will not be abundant. From the above reality, experts recommend that businesses should adjust output to suit market needs to ensure reasonable supply and demand for the coming seasons, and at the same time inform customers about possible raw material trends shortage at the end of the year to gradually increase selling prices while paying attention to long-term contracts.