Gloomy profit growth picture of the 2nd quarter of listed companies

	Bad debt has increased sharply, but the reserve buffer is "thin"
	Companies’ profit growth may cool down but market sees potential
	Banking profit growth in 2023 is forecast to decelerate

Profits of the seafood industry are forecasted to maintain the negative growth in the second quarter. Photo: Ha Phuong

Accordingly, in the base scenario for Q2 earnings forecast, Rong Viet thinks that the net profit of the whole market will decrease by 4% compared to the same period last year. However, the growth trend over the same period of the HoSE may have bottomed from the fourth quarter of 2022 and will start to revival from the second quarter of 2023. In which, the profit of the whole market in this quarter is forecasted to be led by the banking, finance, information technology, pharmaceutical, and oil and gas sectors. While the materials, consumer goods, utilities and industrial sectors will continue to record a double-digit decrease.

Specifically, the profit growth of the banking industry, the main pillar of the market, will improve to an increase of 10% over the same period in 2022, while the first quarter will record a decrease of 3% compared to the same period in 2022thanks to the leadership of VCB, MBB, and STB. The financial services industry is likely to record a growth rate of 20% over the same period in 2022 thanks to VHM (low base in the same period last year) and high profit of securities group thanks to favorable movements of the stock market.

The information technology and pharmaceutical industries are still a bright spot in this quarter with a sustained forecasted growth of 20-25% over the same period in 2022, led by FPT, DHG, DBD, IMP. The profit of the oil and gas industry is expected to shift from the loss in the second quarter of 2022 to the profit in this period.

Rong Viet experts also expect the consumer service industry also share similar positive growth mainly because it is expected that HVN will start making a net profit from the second quarter of this year, while the retail group keep being hurt in this period.

In the opposite direction, manufacturing enterprises in the materials industry (steel, chemicals, fertilizers, rubber), consumer goods (textiles, seafood), utilities (gas), industry (seaports), construction)continued to record the negative double-digit growth this quarter with a decline ranging from 20% to 70% year on year.

VNDirect securities company also forecast that business results of businesses on the floor will recover in the last 6 months of the year thanks to lowering interest rates and the Government's economic stimulus policies.

Besides, although the earnings per share (EPS) of listed companies grew negative in the first 6 months of 2023, VNDirect Securities Company still expects corporate profits to recover in2023-2024 period thanks to the government's economic support policies. Specifically, VNDirect forecasts that profits of businesses on HoSE will grow by 10.4% in 2023 and 19.3% in 2024, respectively.

VNDirect offers two investment arguments around interest rate reduction and expansionary fiscal policy. Accordingly, the financial services industry will record the strongest profit growth when interest rates decrease. In addition, the banking industry will represent the recovery of the Vietnamese economy.

As for the support from fiscal policy, VNDirect believes that public investment will accelerate in the coming months thanks to the recent efforts of the Government. Therefore, infrastructure construction companies that are assigned contractors for large projects and companies that supply building materials (stone, steel) will benefit the most.

Besides, investment disbursement from state-owned enterprises will convert to the energy sector. Oil and gas exploration and exploitation activities will be promoted to increase energy supply. Besides, the electricity sector also entered a new chapter since the approval of the Power Plan VIII.