CPTPP Agreement: Must take full advantages of all opportunities

Agricultural and seafood products are considered to have many advantages over the CPTPP. Picture: ST.

Expand markets, increase the opportunity

The 12-member TPP has officially been renamed as the CPTPP with 11 members, without the United States. Associate Professor Hoang Van Cuong, Member of the Ha Noi National Assembly Delegation, deputy head of the National Economics University, said that according to calculations by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, if Vietnam joined the TPP, Vietnam would get a larger benefit from the United States, but with CPTPP, the benefit is considerably smaller.

Specifically, with the joining in the CPTPP, GDP only increases by 1.32%, while the increase in the TPP is by 6.7%. The exports with CPTPP only increased by 4%, compared to 15% with the TPP. The CPTPP helps the import increased by 3.8% as the figure of TPP is expected to 10.5%.

“However, the absence of the US does not mean that Vietnam loses its advantages. The biggest advantage is the market. Among 11 countries participating in the CPTPP, many countries are playing an important role and are major economies. Accessing to new markets is the chance that we must take full advantage”, said Dr. Hoang Van Cuong.

Regarding this issue, Dr. Tran Toan Thang, Head of the World Economic Department (at the National Central for Socio-economic Information and Forecast of the Ministry of Planning and Investment) said that: “even if Vietnam only get a small benefit from the CPTPP, it is very important to join the Agreement. If not joining, the countries members would trade with each other and reduce trade with Vietnam.

“In fact, so far, even without the CPTPP, Vietnam also open its door. The member countries of the CPTPP are not completely new liberalization markets of Vietnam excepting 3 countries: Peru, Mexico, and Canada. Expanding markets is increasing opportunities that we should take full advantage”, Dr. Tran Toan Thang said.

Agricultural products are more likely to break through.

About the benefits of the CPTPP, Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that the first beneficiaries are exporters: textile industry, consumer goods and especially agricultural products. Vietnam has good conditions on land and product characteristics... which makes agricultural products can be competitive. Besides, in the long term, according to Dr. Hoang Van Cuong, the industry which is dependent on foreign materials will have the opportunity to be invested by foreign investors right in the country, increasing the value chain of production in Vietnam.

About this issue, Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, Director of Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), analyzed: With the TPP, within the US, commodities such as textiles and footwear... are expected to grow dramatically compared to today. Even so, many investment projects in this sector have shifted from markets such as China and Hong Kong to Vietnam to take advantage of the TPP. Currently, with the CPTPP, minus the US, while new competitors are growing, the textile industries will not be able to achieve breakthrough growth as expected. However, many other industries can promote export thanks to the CPTPP, typically agricultural products, seafood products...

Well prepared for the integration policy

opening up many opportunities, but what are Vietnam's difficulties when joining the CPTPP? Answering this question, Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that the biggest difficulty is that the adaptability of Vietnam is still lower than the standard. For example, Vietnam has a backward technology. Organizations in terms of production and market control of Vietnam have not kept pace with other countries participating in the agreement.

In this regard, Dr. Tran Toan Thang added: "As far as I know, basically the commitments under the TPP Agreement to the CPTPP Agreement remain unchanged. Also, the CPTPP still puts pressure on Vietnam’s institutional reforms. The CPTPP has direct provisions requiring Vietnam to change its rules and regulations. Therefore, to take advantage of the benefits and limit negative impact, Vietnam must raise its competitive capacity even if the CPTPP does not force us to do so”.

Some experts acknowledge that in order to take opportunities as well as to limit the difficulties and challenges of the CPTPP, in addition to finalizing the final negotiations, Vietnam should prepare more for the inside reform, especially in the field of anti-corruption. In addition, Vietnam should prepare better institutional and policy integration, build a strong group of domestic enterprises, better understand the integration of economic and trad ... With the business sector, the right direction is to mobilize by ourselves, as well as cooperation in the framework of the global value chain, through efforts to improve human resources, investment in science and technology...