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The market in 2023 faces many difficulties. Photo: Vinatex

Although, in May, goods export activities showed positive signs of recovery, with export turnover estimated at US$29.05 billion, up 4.3% from the previous month. However, export is estimated at US$136.17 billion from January to May, down 11.6% year-on-year. The domestic economic sector reached US$35.19 billion, down 13.2%, accounting for 25.8% of total export turnover; the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) reached US$100.98 billion, down 11.1%, accounting for 74.2%.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, besides the decline in export orders, the decrease in export prices also dragged our country's export turnover down in the first five months of this year.

The average export price of many items fell compared to the same period last year, such as tea at 7.9%, cashew nuts at 1.5%, pepper at 34.3%, rubber at 21.1 %, fertilizer at 35.2%, and plastic raw material at 24.4%. Only a few items had an increase in export prices, such as rice at 7.9%, coffee at 3.5% and coal at 38.5%.

Notably, all industries faced difficulties in export markets due to decreased global demand, especially for non-essential consumer goods. Therefore, export turnover in the first five months of 2023 to most of the key markets decreased with different levels of impact.

Textiles and garments, leather and footwear, wood, and seafood, with the main export markets as the US, EU... saw the biggest decline, while rubber, rice, vegetables, and cashew nuts industries, with the main export market as Asia, were less affected.

In addition, some export industries such as seafood, wood and wood products, iron and steel, and plastic products face pressure on trade remedy investigations. "The increased cost of input materials also affects the competitiveness of exported goods and creates difficulties in the export market", said the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Among the major export markets, the United States is still the largest export market of Vietnam in the first five months of 2023, accounting for 26% of the country's total export turnover. According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Fed's maintenance of interest rate hikes for a long time has achieved certain results in dealing with high inflation. However, consumer spending shows signs of slowing down and is expected to continue to weaken in the context that many businesses are bankrupted, have job cuts and warnings about the recent economic recession are given; the savings rate has increased, showing that people may be more cautious in consumption, affecting Vietnam's exports to this market. Therefore, the import demand of this market for Vietnam's goods continued to decline sharply over the same period last year, estimated at US$37 billion, down 19.5% year-on-year.

China is Vietnam's second-largest export market. Although this market has opened its border since January 8, 2023, the economy had not recovered quickly and faced many difficulties when exports decelerated due to the decline in global demand. Unemployment has directly affected the consumer demand for goods of the Chinese people, and the increasingly strict demand for goods standards is the main reason leading to difficulties for Vietnamese exports to this market.

Therefore, Vietnam's export turnover to China in the first five months of 2023 is estimated at US$19.8 billion, down 9.3% year-on-year.

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As for the EU market, the decline in exports is assessed as showing signs of slowing down. Therefore, exports to the EU market in the first five months are estimated at US$18.4 billion, down 6.5% year-on-year.