US or China: Who will lead in Vietnamese Tra fish imports?

Tra fish processing line at Aquatex Ben Tre - Member of Pan Group. Photo: TL

According to data from Vietnam Customs, tra fish exports to China and Hong Kong reached US$163 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This growth was consistent across all months of the quarter.

For the full year 2024, tra fish exports to China and Hong Kong totaled US$581 million, a 1% increase compared to 2023.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) reports that the United States' implementation of the World Trade Organization's (WTO) ruling presents significant opportunities for Vietnam to stabilize its tra fish exports to the US market. This development also underscores the growing multifaceted relationship between Vietnam and the United States, particularly as the two nations have recently upgraded their partnership to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

VASEP's analysis reveals that China first surpassed the US as the largest importer of Vietnamese tra fish in 2017. However, the US regained its leading position in 2018, with tra fish exports to the US reaching US$550 million, compared to US$529 million to China.

Since 2019, US tra fish imports have not experienced significant growth due to ongoing anti-dumping duties. Consequently, China has been the leading importer of Vietnamese tra fish for the past six years.

In 2024, tra fish exports to China accounted for 29% of Vietnam's total seafood export value. Notably, October 2024 marked the highest monthly export value of tra fish to China and Hong Kong since the beginning of the year, exceeding US$61 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period in 2023.

Frozen tra fish fillets from Vietnam are highly popular among Chinese consumers. In the fourth quarter of 2024, exports of this product to China exceeded US$100 million, a 62% surge compared to the same period in 2023. For the entire year, frozen tra fish fillet exports to China and Hong Kong reached US$349 million, a 6% decrease year-on-year, accounting for 60% of total tra fish exports to this market.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, China increased imports of dried fish and other frozen products (whole fish, cut sections, fish maw, etc.) by 7% compared to the same period in 2023. Exports of value-added tra fish products also saw a remarkable 92% growth during this period.

The US and China are currently the top two importers of Vietnamese tra fish. The question remains whether China will retain its top position in 2025, especially considering the recent bilateral agreement between Vietnam and the US to remove anti-dumping duties on exported tra fish fillets.

The US's implementation of the WTO ruling opens up significant opportunities for Vietnam to stabilize its tra fish exports to the US market. This also demonstrates the commitment to strengthening the multifaceted relationship between the two countries, particularly in light of their upgraded Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.

Following a substantial increase in late 2024, tra fish prices remained high in the first month of 2025. Larger fish, weighing over 1.2 kg, reached the highest price of VND 32,440 (US$1.28) per kg, the highest level since 2022. These larger fish are primarily favored by the Chinese market, while smaller sizes are preferred for fillet exports to the EU and the US.

The main reason for the sharp rise in prices for large tra fish is their limited availability. As of the end of December 2024, fish weighing between 800g and 1kg accounted for 37% of the total fish stock, while larger sizes made up only about 5%.

Additionally, demand from the Chinese market, particularly during the Lunar New Year holiday, has contributed to the price increase. Furthermore, the supply of fish has been limited due to slower fish growth in the colder weather of December.