What is the scenario for growth in 2024?

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In 2023, growth is forecast to reach 5.19%

Speaking at the Vietnam Economic Pulse (VEP) forum with the theme ""Science and technology promoting prosperity - Opportunities for Vietnam", evaluating the Vietnamese economy in the past year, Director of the Institute Central Economic Management Research (CIEM) Tran Hong Minh said that in 2023, although the Covid-19 pandemic has been controlled, the consequences of the pandemic are still very severe and are having a negative impact to the world economy in general and the Vietnamese economy in particular. On the other hand, geopolitical tensions and increasing technical barriers from Vietnam's important markets related to green products and green production have posed great difficulties and challenges for the Vietnam's economy in 2023, as well as in the following years. Therefore, in the coming time, Vietnam will have to make efforts to overcome the internal difficulties of its own economy as well as objective difficulties from the world economy and the complex geopolitical context. To achieve a breakthrough in 2024 and the following years requires appropriate policies, operating strategies, and economic development to take advantage of the achievements of the 4th Industrial Revolution to overcome through difficulties and new challenges...

Agreeing with that opinion, UNDP Resident Representative in Vietnam Ramla Khalidi also affirmed that 2023 will be a difficult year for the economies of other countries. In addition, central banks in all countries around the world have increased interest rates to control inflation, which has negative consequences for the growth of market demand, as well as world economic growth. In that context, the Vietnamese Government has made efforts to reduce these difficulties and challenges and control inflation...

At the forum, Dr. Nguyen Huu Tho, Head of the Department of Economic Analysis and Forecasting (CIEM) also gave positive signs of the domestic macroeconomic picture. Accordingly, a number of macroeconomic indicators well meet the capital needs for development, especially public investment indicators, in total, 461 trillion VND has been disbursed in 11 months, 6.7% higher than 122.6 trillion VND in absolute terms compared to the same period in 2022. Foreign investment attraction (FDI) in 11 months is estimated to reach 28.8 billion USD in registered capital, of which realized capital reached 20.2 billion USD. This is the highest level of realized capital in the past 5 years. Along with that, Vietnam also controls inflation well, within the Government's Resolution 01 operating plan of 4.5%. Economic growth is also expected to be higher in the next quarter than the previous quarter, estimated GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2023 will reach 7.72%, higher than the growth rate in the third quarter of 2023 of 5.23%; Quarter 2/2023 is 4.05% and quarter 1/2023 is 3.28%.

From the above results, CIEM experts predict that GDP growth in 2023 is estimated to reach 5.19%, although lower than the increase of 8.02% in 2022, this growth rate is higher than that of many countries. in the region and the world.

Forum view.

3 growth scenarios for 2024

Economic experts also commented that 2024 is still considered a not very easy year for the Vietnamese economy, because the internal difficulties in the economy of 2023 will still last until 2024. At that time, the world geopolitical situation was still complicated and unpredictable, world economic growth was still forecast to decrease slightly, along with the economic growth of many of Vietnam's major trading partners. South is also forecast to decrease. While inflation is forecast to remain high, possibly even higher than in 2023, operating Vietnam's monetary policy will be difficult and require more flexibility.

In 2024, CIEM offers 3 GDP growth scenarios, in which in the base scenario (probable), GDP increases by 6%, the high scenario is 6.5% and the low scenario is 5.5%. This estimate is relatively close to the latest forecasts of some international financial institutions (WB: 5.5%; IMF: forecast 5.8%; ADB: 6%). Notably, according to the research team, traditional growth engines such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi City have a slower growth rate; some new locomotives have appeared (Hai Phong, Quang Ninh, Thanh Hoa) but they are still few and not really strong.

In order to promote the stable development of Vietnam's economy, experts have also made recommendations and proposed a number of key solutions for 2024. Accordingly, experts say that the first solution is to the priority is still to focus on stabilizing the macroeconomy, controlling inflation, and focusing more on economic growth drivers. Promote continued improvement of institutions and business environment. In addition, it is also necessary to continue developing infrastructure to serve production.

According to Ms. Ramla Khalidi, in order for Vietnam's economy to recover strongly by 2024, we must have flexible solutions to solve the difficulties and challenges we are facing. In fact, the process of innovation, energy transition... is bringing new opportunities for Vietnam to penetrate new markets, increase the value and content of goods, as well as promote exports... Besides, Vietnam can also increase investment attraction, take advantage of advanced technologies such as semiconductor technology, artificial intelligence... to effectively exploit these opportunities to develop at a higher level, escape the average income trap...