Three growth scenarios set for southeastern region

Barges load up rice for export in Tay Ninh province. (Photo: VNA)

Growth in Vietnam's southeastern region could reach 8.07% annually during the 2021-2030 period, according to a report by the Institute of Development Strategy under the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI).

The report said the region has become a dynamic development area in recent decades with rapid growth recorded on all fronts including economic, financial, commercial, service, education and job training.

The Southeastern region has been home to a skilled labour force and one of the country's leaders in science and technology, innovation and digital transformation.

According to MPI, projected growth for the region was between 6.04% to 8.07% annually for the period.

In scenario 1 or the low-growth scenario, the projected gross regional domestic product (GRDP) growth rate is expected to average 4.92% per year for the period 2021-2025, and reach an average of 7.18% per year for the period 2026-2030. Overall for the period, the average growth rate is projected to be 6.04% per year. For the period 2031-2050, the expected growth rate is around 6.85% per year.

During the period 2021-2030, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is estimated to be 46.8%; labour productivity growth is expected to average 5.4% per year. The projected average per capita income is around 200 million VND (8,200 USD) by 2025, 315 million VND (11,800 USD) by 2030, and 833 million VND (38,500 USD) by 2050.

An estimated investment capital of around 11.4 quadrillion VND will be needed during the period 2021-2030, which is 2.1 times the amount required during 2011-2020. The investment-to-GRDP ratio at current prices is expected to be around 27%.

In scenario 2 or the medium-growth scenario, the projected GRDP growth rate is expected to average 5.48% per year for the period 2021-2025, and reach an average of 8.66% per year for the period 2026-2030. Overall for the period, the average growth rate is forecast to be 7.06% per year. For the period 2031-2050, the expected growth rate is around 7.2% per year.

During 2021-2030, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is estimated to be 50.9%; labor productivity growth is expected to average 6.4% per year. The projected average per capita income is around 205 million VND (8,400 USD) by 2025, 345 million VND (13,000 USD) by 2030, and 1 billion VND (38,500 USD) by 2050.

An estimated investment capital of around 12.3 quadrillion VND will be needed during 2021-2030, which is 2.3 times the amount required during 2011-2020. The investment-to-GRDP ratio at current prices is expected to be around 28%.

In scenario 3 or the high-growth scenario, the projected GRDP growth rate is expected to average 5.97% per year for the period 2021-2025 and 10.2% per year for the period 2026-2030. Overall for the period, the average growth rate is projected to be 8.07% per year. For the period 2031-2050, the expected growth rate is around 7.6% per year.

During the period 2021-30, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is estimated to be 58.5%; labour productivity growth is expected to average 7.4% per year. The projected average per capita income is around 210 million VND (8,600 USD) by 2025, 380 million VND (14,500 USD) by 2030, and 1.2 billion VND (53,000 USD) by 2050.

An estimated investment capital of around 15.8 quadrillion VND will be needed during the period 2021-2030, which is three times the amount required during 2011-2020. The investment-to-GRDP ratio at current prices is expected to be around 32%.

The projection was made based on a number of input variables such as economic, trade, and investment growth, demographic changes, social issues, climate change, the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and Vietnam's developmental strategy.

The institute said the region has been and is to play a crucial role in the country's next socio-economic development phase. In 2022, the region's GRDP accounted for about 31 % of Vietnam's GDP with exports at 35% and regional budget at 38%./.