Securities attractive investment channel

	Expectations to transform business activities of Securities Depository Centers
	Prevent risks from securities companies mobilizing capital from investors
	Focusing on five tasks so that the securities industry continues to develop in the face of intertwined opportunities, challenges

The stock market has recorded many positive signals since the beginning of the year w. Photo: Internet

From the beginning of the year, the stock market has recorded many positive signals. At the end of the trading session on February 21, the benchmark VN-Index decrease 0.02 points from the previous session to 1,230.04 points. The main upward trend has been maintained for many months, helping the Ho Chi Minh City stock index currently traded at the highest level in the past five months.

Cash flow into stocks maintaining a good level is an important factor that helps the stock market move positively. Unlike usual, the trading value on the stock exchange before the 2024 Lunar New Year did not decrease, liquidity still remained around VND15,000 billion/session. Notably, the average liquidity was pushed up to more than VND21,000 billion/session in the first five sessions of Lunar New Year of Dragon, of which the session on February 19 hit USD1 billion.

According to market experts, securities are still an attractive investment channel. Mr. Michael Kokalari, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis and Market Research Department of VinaCapital, said that domestic investors will pour more money into the Vietnamese stock market in the first quarter and this year because

At the same time, a broad-based economic recovery will boost corporate profits, especially the banking industry and consumer companies. At the same time, market valuation is at a very attractive level.

This expert also said that the recovery of the real estate industry in Vietnam will take more time because measures to solve market problems are still being implemented. Therefore, the stock market is currently the most attractive channel for people for the coming period.

Expressing a positive view when assessing the market outlook for the new year, Mr. Trinh Hoai Giang, General Director of Ho Chi Minh City Securities Joint Stock Company (HSC), said that positivity is based on a more stable global economy despites geopolitical uncertainties that could affect the economy.

​Accordingly, monetary and fiscal policies are both supporting the economy. Under the management of the State Bank, the banking system operates stably, with low interest rates.

Regarding the debt market, Mr. Giang said that corporate bond debt and bad debt of this bank have been resolved flexibly, so it also contributes to reducing negative impacts on the market. Investor confidence has returned and what we need to do is avoid the previous mistakes that caused the consequences seen over the years.

Forecasting scenarios for VN-Index in 2024, Mr. Kim Thien Quang, General Director of Maybank Investment Bank (MSVN), said that this unit's experts developed two scenarios for VN-Index based on that Vietnam is possibly upgraded to an emerging market.

With the basic scenario, if the upgrade consideration does not take place, foreign cash flow is still weak and has liquidity about VND15,000 billion per session, MSVN believes that VN-Index could close in 2024 at 1,250 points, up 11% compared to the end of 2023.

With a positive scenario, if the upgrade progress takes place as forecast in September 2024 (or March 2025), foreign cash flow will be stronger and has liquidity VND20,000-22,000 billion per session, VN-Index can reach 1,420 points, up 26%.

In contrast to 2023, MSVN expects that in both cases, the market will have many fluctuations in the first half of the year, then will stabilize and gradually accelerate in the remaining months of the year when the picture of economic recovery annd corporate profits are clearer, as well as worries about the real estate market and bad bank debt are gradually disappearing.

Commenting on the industry that will benefit from low interest rates, Mr. Trinh Hoai Giang mentioned bank stocks and securities. In addition, the acceleration of public investment will support manufacturing industries such as electricity, construction materials, infrastructure and telecommunications.

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In the above positive context, Mr. Michael Kokalari noted, not all stocks will reap success and some companies also do not have positive prospects. VinaCapital's strategy is to focus on finding companies that have the potential to grow profits more than 20% this year, it is noted that many of these companies are currently trading at very low valuations.