Việt Nam could maintain inflation between 3.5–4.5% in 2025: experts

An overview of the seminar 'Market and Price Developments in Việt Nam in 2024 and Forecasts for 2025'. — Photo VNS Tiến Đạt

Experts highlighted Việt Nam's impressive economic performance in 2024 and offered optimistic forecasts for 2025, at a scientific conference, despite potential risks from the global economy.

The conference titled 'Market and price developments in Việt Nam in 2024 and forecasts for 2025', was organised by the Institute of Economics and Finance and the Price Management Department on January 9.

Director of the Academy of Finance, Nguyễn Đào Tùng, said: “At the beginning of 2024, many were not optimistic as Q1 GDP growth was just 5.66 per cent and March CPI reached 3.97 per cent. However, from Q2 onward, the economy rebounded. By year-end, GDP growth reached 7.09 per cent, exceeding the target of 6–6.5 per cent, while average CPI stood at 3.63 per cent, well below the ceiling of 4–4.5 per cent.”

Tùng attributed these achievements to favourable global trade conditions and domestic policies on taxation and credit, along with interest rate support.

Citing forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), global economic growth in 2025 is expected to remain stable at 3.2 per cent, forming a solid foundation for Việt Nam to target GDP growth of 6.5–7 per cent.

Deputy Secretary-General of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Nguyễn Hoài Nam, has forecast that seafood exports could reach US$10 billion in 2025, representing a 10–15 per cent increase from 2024 due to favourable trade agreements and recovering international markets. However, Nam also cautioned about risks from high interest rates and a strong US dollar, which could pressure exports.

Inflation expected to stay in check

To maintain CPI under 4.5 per cent, experts recommended flexible monetary and fiscal policies alongside gradual adjustments to public service prices.

Acting Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance, Nguyễn Đức Độ, predicted that: “With effective money supply control and declining oil prices, CPI in 2025 could rise around 3 per cent (0.5 percentage points). However, challenges remain from US dollar appreciation and public service price adjustments.”

Head of the Institute's General Department, Ngô Trí Long, expressed confidence that: “Despite inflationary risks, proactive policy management could help Việt Nam sustain inflation at 3.5–4.5 per cent in 2025, ensuring macroeconomic stability.”

In 2024, several sectors recorded strong growth. Hoàng Thị Vân of the Institute of Economics and Finance reported that a record nine million tonnes of rice had been exported, highlighting that the commodity remains a critical economic pillar.

Deputy Head of the Theory and Propaganda Department at Nhân Dân (The People) newspaper, Nguyễn Minh Phong, noted that the textile and garment industry achieved revenues of $44 billion in 2024 and could reach $47–48 billion in 2025.

Meanwhile, former Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, Trần Kim Chung, stated that the real estate market is undergoing restructuring and will gradually stabilise and become more transparent in 2025.

However, Lương Thị Hồng Hạnh from the Institute of Economics and Finance warned that adjustments in healthcare, education and electricity prices in 2025 could slightly increase CPI.