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On January 23, the Price Management Steering Committee had a meeting to evaluate the results of price management in 2023 and orientation for 2024.

Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai chairs the meeting. Photo: Government’s Office

Confidence is strengthened, inflation expectations are stabilized

Reporting at the meeting, Deputy Minister of Finance Le Tan Can said that in 2023, price management faced many challenges due to rapid, complex, multi-dimensional fluctuations intertwined with economic, politic, social factors of the world and region. But for the domestic situation, inflation tended to soar at the beginning of the year, then gradually decreased and increase slightly again in the fourth quarter of 2023. The domestic commodity market in 2023 is basically stable, the supply of goods, especially necessities, is always guaranteed.

In particular, the Deputy Minister of Finance said that the timely issuance of policies to support exemption, reduction, and extension of payment deadline of taxes, fees, charges, and land use fees helps reduce pressure on the price level; reduce lending interest rates, stabilize the foreign exchange market; promote disbursement of public investment capital; along with other macro policies to help remove difficulties for businesses and people, stabilize the macro economy, and control inflation.

The average consumer price index (CPI) in 2023 rose by 3.25% over the same period last year, within the target set by the National Assembly and the Government.

Commenting on the price management and administration work in 2023, Deputy Prime Minister Le Minh Khai - Head of the Price Management Steering Committee said that the price management work involves the timely and drastic participation of the whole political system, though prices of some goods and services were adjusted, inflation has so far been controlled. According to the Deputy Prime Minister, this is a great success in implementing the 2023 socio-economic plan, contributing to promoting growth and ensuring people's lives.

The group assisting the Price Steering Committee proposed 3 inflation scenarios with average CPI forecasts increasing by 3.52%, 4.03% and 4.5%. In addition, some forecasts of independent professional agencies also forecast that the average CPI in 2023 will be around 3.5-4.5%.

The General Statistics Office forecasts the average CPI in the range of 3.5%-4.5% (3 scenarios: 3.5%, 4% and 4.5%). The State Bank (SBV) forecasts that average inflation in 2024 will increase in the range of 4 ± 0.5%.

But according to a report from the Ministry of Finance, it is forecast that in 2024 there are a number of factors affecting inflation. Specifically, some factors putting pressure on the price level in 2024 such as prices of some raw materials, essential consumer goods and services are forecast to increase; The implementation of the market price roadmap and the correct calculation of full costs in the prices of goods and services priced by the State continue to be issues that need to be considered in 2024 such as educational service prices, electricity prices, and service prices, health examination, treatment prices and, transportation prices.

On the contrary, there will also be some factors that help reduce pressure on the price level, such as Vietnam have abundant food sources, meeting domestic consumption and export needs... Some supportive policies Taxes in 2024 will continue to be applied similarly to 2023, contributing to reducing the cost of forming gasoline prices and goods and services prices.

On the other hand, the cooling of global inflation helps Vietnam reduce pressure from the inflation import channel, while helping to improve psychological factors, expectations, and support inflation control; and Central banks stops raising interest rates to help reduce pressure on exchange rates.

In addition, the Government's policy of macroeconomic stabilization and inflation control in recent years will help strengthen the confidence of businesses and people in a stable macroeconomic environment, thereby stabilizing the inflation expectations.

Deputy Minister of Finance Le Tan Can presents the report. Photo: Government Office

It is necessary to flexibly and effectively use price monitoring tools and measures

To carry out the tasks set by the National Assembly, the Ministry of Finance said that price management in 2024 needs to ensure good control of inflation, while continuing to remove difficulties for production and business and people's lives.

At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen price management and stabilization and strictly handle violations of price laws according to authority; prepare well a price management plan for State-determined goods and public services according to the market roadmap. The Ministry of Finance requests to closely monitor world economic developments and inflation to have appropriate response solutions; ensure smooth supply, circulation, and distribution of goods and services, especially for petroleum and strategic items...

The Ministry of Finance believes that it is necessary to operate monetary policy according to set goals in coordination with fiscal policy and other policies to contribute to stabilizing the macroeconomy, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances of the economy. In addition, we must proactively forecast, calculate, build and update price management scenarios for essential goods according to the market roadmap; enhance effective implementation and supervision of price declaration and listing; price information announcement.

Agreeing with the solutions in the report of the Ministry of Finance, representatives of ministries and branches said that it is necessary to ensure goods supply and demand, as well as be flexible in coordinating policy tools, and strengthen control and inspection of the market, and enhance the fight against smuggling and trade fraud.

Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang suggested paying attention to forecasts of gasoline price developments. In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to coordinate with the Ministry of Finance to implement consistent gasoline price management, coordinate the use of flexible price stabilization tools, and limit fluctuations in domestic gasoline prices compared to world prices.

In addition, the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also emphasized the management of domestic food and rice prices due to the influence of exports, forecasting that food prices will increase at a high level. The Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will guide EVN to operate the electricity price plan in accordance with regulations.

Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Pham Thanh Ha said that the SBV has managed monetary policy flexibly and proactively with efforts to reduce interest rates and stabilize the exchange rate level, thereby contributing to stabilizing inflation. In 2024, the State Bank has set a credit growth target higher than the previous year, so the representative of the State Bank said that it is necessary to continue to operate and coordinate reasonable policies. Along with that, we must promote communication work to limit expected inflation, contributing to managing inflation in general

In addition, representatives of some ministries and branches also suggested proactively building detailed scenarios and management plans for each item, each time, to avoid price adjustment at the same time. Furthermore, by July 2024, the 2023 Price Law will be implemented, so the Ministry of Finance needs to soon issue circulars guiding on pricing and price management...

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