IMF forecasts Vietnam’s 2018 GDP at 6.6%
![]() |
A female customer receives her goods delivered by a motorcycle rider in downtown
The report, titled “Asia at the Forefront: Growth Challenges for the Next Decade and Beyond,” indicated that Asia continues to drive the global economy, with growth forecast at 5.6% this year and 5.4% next year. However, there are risks ahead, brought on by tighter financial conditions, rising trade tensions and slowing momentum in China.
The report also cited longer-term challenges for Asia’s growth prospects, including slowing productivity, population aging and the impact of the digital revolution on the future of work. Policies to tackle these challenges should help to strengthen economic resilience, sustain growth and ensure that their benefits are widespread.
Economic performance was strong in much of the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In Vietnam, growth reached 7.1% year-on-year in the first half of this year, continuing a remarkable performance driven by strong exports, foreign direct investment inflows, and tourism.
The country’s inflation reached 4% year-on-year in August, but core inflation remained subdued at 1.5% year-on-year, the IMF stated.
Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to rise to just under the 4% target of the legislative National Assembly, led by higher oil prices and gradual increases in administered prices.
The report noted that low-income Asian economies have, with a few exceptions, not participated significantly in global value chains. Intermediate exports from Asia are largely from the medium/high-tech manufacturing sectors of advanced and emerging economies, with Vietnam being a somewhat rare example of a relatively new emerging market that has gained market share in electronics.
Global value chain participation is the sum of foreign value added to domestic exports (backward participation) and domestically produced intermediates used in third economies (forward participation), expressed as the ratio to an economy’s gross exports.
The regional assessment also highlighted the significant impact that digitalization is having on the region. For instance, digital innovations accounted for nearly one-third of Asia’s per capita growth over the past two decades.
To ensure that the region fully harnesses the digital pidend, the IMF suggests policymakers upgrade education, infrastructure and the regulatory environment. At the same time, digital disruptions, such as workers displaced by automation, will need to be addressed, and financial stability risks from fintech must be managed.
Excluding China, ecommerce penetration is lower in the rest of Asia, but it is growing fast. Lazada, for example, offers millions of products to online shoppers in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the report.
The IMF cited the World Bank as indicating in 2016 that firms using ecommerce in Vietnam had, on average, 3.6 percentage points higher total factor productivity growth than firms not using ecommerce.
According to the report, there are downside risks to the forecast for both the near term and the medium term. Continued trade tensions could further undermine business confidence, hurt financial markets, disrupt supply chains and discourage investment and trade in the region.
To strengthen resilience and tackle these growing downside risks, the IMF suggests Asian economies adopt policies that support financial stability and sustain growth. Given the region’s vast persity, policy priorities differ across economies.
Looking beyond the near term, Asia would benefit from reforms that address the region’s challenges, as well as ensure sustained and inclusive growth, according to the Washington-based organization.
Related News

The government seeks approval for revised GDP, CPI targets
16:28 | 15/02/2025 Finance

Vietnam kicked off the year with a strong start in trade, exceeding US$63 billion in the first month
16:30 | 15/02/2025 Import-Export

Vietnam, Korea Customs sign AEO MRA
11:07 | 26/12/2024 Customs

Prioritizing semiconductor workforce training
09:16 | 15/12/2024 Headlines
Latest News

Embracing green exports: a pathway to enter global supply chains
10:33 | 20/02/2025 Import-Export

New policy proposed to prevent transfer pricing, tax evasion of FDI enterprises
10:32 | 20/02/2025 Import-Export

Việt Nam’s durian exports to China plummet by 80%
16:18 | 19/02/2025 Import-Export

Coconut exports reach 14-year high
15:29 | 18/02/2025 Import-Export
More News

Shrimp exports grow in the first month of 2025
15:28 | 18/02/2025 Import-Export

Rice export prices drop, but decline expected to be short-term
08:10 | 17/02/2025 Import-Export

Key agro products expected to maintain export growth this year
08:08 | 17/02/2025 Import-Export

EU issues 12 warnings against Việt Nam’s food and agricultural exports
08:07 | 17/02/2025 Import-Export

Việt Nam to impose VAT on low-value express-imported goods
08:06 | 17/02/2025 Import-Export

Exchange rate risks need attention in near future
16:31 | 15/02/2025 Import-Export

Import and export turnover reaches about US$29 billion in the second half of January 2025
14:52 | 14/02/2025 Import-Export

Market edges up slightly as liquidity remains low
14:48 | 14/02/2025 Import-Export

Business regulations must be trimmed for development of enterprises: Experts
14:46 | 14/02/2025 Import-Export
Your care
The system has not recorded your reading habits.
Please Login/Register so that the system can provide articles according to your reading needs.

Embracing green exports: a pathway to enter global supply chains
10:33 | 20/02/2025 Import-Export

New policy proposed to prevent transfer pricing, tax evasion of FDI enterprises
10:32 | 20/02/2025 Import-Export

Việt Nam’s durian exports to China plummet by 80%
16:18 | 19/02/2025 Import-Export

Coconut exports reach 14-year high
15:29 | 18/02/2025 Import-Export

Shrimp exports grow in the first month of 2025
15:28 | 18/02/2025 Import-Export