IMF forecasts Vietnam’s 2018 GDP at 6.6%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for this year at 6.6%, reflecting the growth momentum of trading partners and rising potential growth at home, according to its “Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific” report released recently.
imf forecasts vietnams 2018 gdp at 66

A female customer receives her goods delivered by a motorcycle rider in downtown

The report, titled “Asia at the Forefront: Growth Challenges for the Next Decade and Beyond,” indicated that Asia continues to drive the global economy, with growth forecast at 5.6% this year and 5.4% next year. However, there are risks ahead, brought on by tighter financial conditions, rising trade tensions and slowing momentum in China.

The report also cited longer-term challenges for Asia’s growth prospects, including slowing productivity, population aging and the impact of the digital revolution on the future of work. Policies to tackle these challenges should help to strengthen economic resilience, sustain growth and ensure that their benefits are widespread.

Economic performance was strong in much of the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). In Vietnam, growth reached 7.1% year-on-year in the first half of this year, continuing a remarkable performance driven by strong exports, foreign direct investment inflows, and tourism.

The country’s inflation reached 4% year-on-year in August, but core inflation remained subdued at 1.5% year-on-year, the IMF stated.

Meanwhile, inflation is forecast to rise to just under the 4% target of the legislative National Assembly, led by higher oil prices and gradual increases in administered prices.

The report noted that low-income Asian economies have, with a few exceptions, not participated significantly in global value chains. Intermediate exports from Asia are largely from the medium/high-tech manufacturing sectors of advanced and emerging economies, with Vietnam being a somewhat rare example of a relatively new emerging market that has gained market share in electronics.

Global value chain participation is the sum of foreign value added to domestic exports (backward participation) and domestically produced intermediates used in third economies (forward participation), expressed as the ratio to an economy’s gross exports.

The regional assessment also highlighted the significant impact that digitalization is having on the region. For instance, digital innovations accounted for nearly one-third of Asia’s per capita growth over the past two decades.

To ensure that the region fully harnesses the digital pidend, the IMF suggests policymakers upgrade education, infrastructure and the regulatory environment. At the same time, digital disruptions, such as workers displaced by automation, will need to be addressed, and financial stability risks from fintech must be managed.

Excluding China, ecommerce penetration is lower in the rest of Asia, but it is growing fast. Lazada, for example, offers millions of products to online shoppers in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, according to the report.

The IMF cited the World Bank as indicating in 2016 that firms using ecommerce in Vietnam had, on average, 3.6 percentage points higher total factor productivity growth than firms not using ecommerce.

According to the report, there are downside risks to the forecast for both the near term and the medium term. Continued trade tensions could further undermine business confidence, hurt financial markets, disrupt supply chains and discourage investment and trade in the region.

To strengthen resilience and tackle these growing downside risks, the IMF suggests Asian economies adopt policies that support financial stability and sustain growth. Given the region’s vast persity, policy priorities differ across economies.

Looking beyond the near term, Asia would benefit from reforms that address the region’s challenges, as well as ensure sustained and inclusive growth, according to the Washington-based organization.

Source: VNA

Related News

The government seeks approval for revised GDP, CPI targets

The government seeks approval for revised GDP, CPI targets

VCN - The Government submitted to the National Assembly for consideration and comments on adjusting the target for the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) to 8% or more; the average growth rate of the consumer price index (CPI) to about 4.5-5%.
Vietnam kicked off the year with a strong start in trade, exceeding US$63 billion in the first month

Vietnam kicked off the year with a strong start in trade, exceeding US$63 billion in the first month

VCN - Data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs indicates a softening of both exports and imports in January 2025, relative to the same month in 2024.
Vietnam, Korea Customs sign AEO MRA

Vietnam, Korea Customs sign AEO MRA

VCN- The Director General of the General Department of Vietnam Customs (GDVC), Mr Nguyen Van Tho, and the Commissioner of Korea Customs Service (KCS), Mr Ko Kwang Hyo, signed the Authorized Economic Operator Mutual Recognition Agreement (AEO MRA) on the afternoon of December 24, at the GDVC’s headquarters.
Prioritizing semiconductor workforce training

Prioritizing semiconductor workforce training

VCN - Vietnam is well-positioned to participate deeply in the global semiconductor industry. Experts believe that developing a skilled workforce in microchips and semiconductors should be a long-term priority to effectively capitalize on this opportunity.
Comment

Latest News

Embracing green exports: a pathway to enter global supply chains

Embracing green exports: a pathway to enter global supply chains

This shift presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Vietnamese businesses to innovate and enhance their competitive edge in the international arena.
New policy proposed to prevent transfer pricing, tax evasion of FDI enterprises

New policy proposed to prevent transfer pricing, tax evasion of FDI enterprises

The ministry proposes to issue a decree on the establishment, management and use of the Investment Support Fund to stabilise the investment environment, encourage and attract strategic investors and multinational corporations.
Việt Nam’s durian exports to China plummet by 80%

Việt Nam’s durian exports to China plummet by 80%

This sharp decline has had a direct impact on Việt Nam’s fruit and vegetable export revenue, which stood at US$416 million in January 2025, marking a 11.3 per cent decrease month-on-month and a 5.2 per cent drop year-on-year.
Coconut exports reach 14-year high

Coconut exports reach 14-year high

In 2024, fresh coconut and coconut product exports surpassed US$1 billion, marking the highest figure in the past 14 years.

More News

Shrimp exports grow in the first month of 2025

Shrimp exports grow in the first month of 2025

According to data from the Việt Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shrimp products recorded a 13 per cent increase in export value in January 2025, reaching a total of $273.3 million.
Rice export prices drop, but decline expected to be short-term

Rice export prices drop, but decline expected to be short-term

Việt Nam’s rice export prices have declined, reaching their lowest level in three years.
Key agro products expected to maintain export growth this year

Key agro products expected to maintain export growth this year

At present, agricultural exports, such as rice, coffee and seafood, have steadily secured a stable place in major global markets.
EU issues 12 warnings against Việt Nam’s food and agricultural exports

EU issues 12 warnings against Việt Nam’s food and agricultural exports

The Việt Nam SPS Office has reported that some Vietnamese export products failed to meet the EU’s stringent standards.
Việt Nam to impose VAT on low-value express-imported goods

Việt Nam to impose VAT on low-value express-imported goods

Việt Nam will end a previous policy that exempted imported goods valued under VNĐ1 million (US$39.4) from taxes when shipped via express delivery.
Exchange rate risks need attention in near future

Exchange rate risks need attention in near future

VCN - Exchange rate developments in 2025 are considered to be quite complicated due to US policies related to trade and investment.
Import and export turnover reaches about US$29 billion in the second half of January 2025

Import and export turnover reaches about US$29 billion in the second half of January 2025

VCN - Vietnam's total import and export turnover in the second half of January 2025 (January 16-31, 2025) reached US$28.9 billion, the latest preliminary statistics of the General Department of Vietnam Customs reported.
Market edges up slightly as liquidity remains low

Market edges up slightly as liquidity remains low

Market breadth remained positive, with 161 gainers outnumbering 144 decliners.
Business regulations must be trimmed for development of enterprises: Experts

Business regulations must be trimmed for development of enterprises: Experts

The General Statistics Office (GSO)'s socio-economic report for January 2025 reveals that while over 33,400 newly established or resumed businesses entered the market - marking a 15% increase compared to January 2024 - more than 58,300 businesses withdrew from the market, representing a growth of 8.1% on year.
Read More

Your care

The system has not recorded your reading habits.

Please Login/Register so that the system can provide articles according to your reading needs.

Latest Most read
Embracing green exports: a pathway to enter global supply chains

Embracing green exports: a pathway to enter global supply chains

This shift presents both a challenge and an opportunity for Vietnamese businesses to innovate and enhance their competitive edge in the international arena.
New policy proposed to prevent transfer pricing, tax evasion of FDI enterprises

New policy proposed to prevent transfer pricing, tax evasion of FDI enterprises

The ministry proposes to issue a decree on the establishment, management and use of the Investment Support Fund to stabilise the investment environment, encourage and attract strategic investors and multinational corporations.
Việt Nam’s durian exports to China plummet by 80%

Việt Nam’s durian exports to China plummet by 80%

This sharp decline has had a direct impact on Việt Nam’s fruit and vegetable export revenue, which stood at US$416 million in January 2025, marking a 11.3 per cent decrease month-on-month and a 5.2 per cent drop year-on-year.
Coconut exports reach 14-year high

Coconut exports reach 14-year high

In 2024, fresh coconut and coconut product exports surpassed US$1 billion, marking the highest figure in the past 14 years.
Shrimp exports grow in the first month of 2025

Shrimp exports grow in the first month of 2025

According to data from the Việt Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), shrimp products recorded a 13 per cent increase in export value in January 2025, reaching a total of $273.3 million.
Mobile Version