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Exports of agriculture, forestry and fishery products are out of breath. Photo: Internet

The great sadness of agriculture and fisheries

According to the latest information from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Planning and Investment), in the first nine months, export turnover was estimated at USD194.30 billion, up 8.2% over the same period in 2018.This figure is much lower than the export growth rate of more than 15% compared to 2017.

In the past nine months, there were 26 items with export turnover of over one billion USD, accounting for 89.8% of total export turnover.In particular, phones and components have the largest export value, reaching USD38.6 billion, accounting for 19.9% of total export value.

“In general, the export proportion of some key products still belongs to the foreign direct investment sector, of which phones and components accounted for 96.6%; electronics, computers and components accounted for 90.1%; footwear accounted for 76.3%; garment and textile accounted for 59%,” the General Statistics Office assessed.

The total import and export turnover of goods in the first nine months of 2019 was estimated at USD382.72 billion, of which the export turnover of goods reachedUSD194.3 billion, up 8.2% over the same period last year.In particular, the domestic economic sector had a growth rate of 16.4%, 5%higher than the growth rate of the foreign invested sector. The trade balance of goods in the period was estimated at a surplus of USD5.9 billion.

During the first nine months of the year, the most noticeable point in the "picture" of Vietnam's export goods was a sharp decline in agricultural and aquatic products. The data from the General Statistics Office showed that, due to the average export price of many agricultural products decreasing over the same period last year, the export value of most agricultural and fishery products also fell. For example, seafood reached USD6.2 billion, down 1.7%; fruits and vegetables reached USD2.8 billion, down 4.6%; coffee reached USD2.2 billion, down 20.7%; rice reached USD2.2 billion, down 9.7%.

Regarding agricultural and fishery exports, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development admitted the growth rate in theexport turnover of agriculture, forestry and fishery products was slowing down.The main reason was due to the sharp decrease in export prices of key agricultural products over the same period in 2018. In addition, the export turnover to some markets decreased, especially the Chinese market (estimated to fall8%), the EU (estimated to drop 6.5%).

For the fisheries sector, although the sector has been trying to overcome the recommendations of the European Commission (EC), the progress to remove the "yellow card" for Vietnamese fishing is still slow. Some provinces have not really paid attention to inspection and supervision at fishing ports and fishing vessel monitoring systems as required.

Mr. Phan Van Chinh, Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), said more and more countries have been involved in the supply of agricultural products, while many countries have conducted programs and plans to promote their production, aiming to gradually decrease dependence on imports.All these things lead to increasingly strong competition in the export of agricultural and aquatic goods. Therefore, export prices of agricultural products are no longer a favorable factor for export growth. According to Chinh, another difficulty is that the major importing countries of Vietnam's agricultural products such as the United States, the EU, China, Japan and South Korea have all increased protection of agricultural products through quality control standards, food safety and hygiene, and traceability requirements.

"Out of breath" compared to 2017 and 2018

In the last months of the year, Vietnam's exports are forecast to continuously maintain growth momentum with the main motivation from the traditional groups such as textiles, footwear and furniture.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade assessed the last months of the year will be the peak period for businesses to focus on production, especially electronics (phones, televisions) when consumer demand increases.

“Besides, the favorable factor for exportsexporting to the US is expected to grow positively as US importers seek goods to replace Chinese onesand new production facilities after shifting investment. If Vietnamese enterprises specialized in computers, electronic products and components, seafood, and furniture are quick and proactive in finding informationand exploitingtheir advantages, they can take advantage of opportunities to grow, gain market share, increase competitiveness, meet standards, and increase exportability, they will seize opportunities,” said the Ministry of Industry and Trade.

In addition to favorable factors, export of goods from now till the end of the year is forecast to face a series of difficulties and challenges. The US-China trade waris oneexample. International organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) warned that US-China trade tensions werecausing a sharp decline inglobal, as well as American and Chinese, economic growth.

In the meantime, other economies are heavily affected because the US and China are both important economic partners of many countries.

For agricultural products alone, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, exporting is unlikely to achieve high growth rates like the previous year.This is because global economic growth in 2019 is forecast to decline and countries tend to invest in agricultural development. Besides, Vietnam's agricultural products have to face fierce competition in exporting, causing a sharp decline in prices.

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“In the context of slowing world economic growth with risk factors, the escalating US-China trade war in combination with the trade conflict between Japan and South Koreais raising concerns about the decline of the global economy. Exports of goods in the short-term are unlikely to increase sharply as in 2017 and 2018. It is forecasted that in 2019, exports will reach about USD261-262 billion, an increase of about 7-7.5% compared to 2018,”the report bythe Ministry of Industry and Trade stated.

In the future, in order to promote the export of goods, Minister of Industry and Trade Tran Tuan Anh suggested the Import and Export Department to actively coordinate with other units to develop scenarios of import and export growth in markets and sectors. In addition, the "commander" of the Industry and Trade Department also asked the Import-Export Department to coordinate with the Department of Trade Defense to reassess and select the groups of goods that are likely to be involved in trade disputes. After that, there will be measures to coordinate with the concerned ministries and branches in order to ensure appropriate development; work closely with economic and trade partners of Vietnam to ensure high efficiency.