Export of shrimp and pangasius with unknowns from the US market

What is constraining production and export of shrimp and shutchi catfish?

Shrimp exports are facing many difficulties, with a value of over 2.8 billion USD, down 24% over the same period last year. Source: Internet.

Good signal for pangasius products

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood exports in October 2023 are estimated to reach over 863 million USD, a slight decrease of 5% compared to the same period in 2022. By the end of October, seafood exports Revenue was nearly 7.5 billion USD, down 20% over the same period last year.

According to analysis by Ms. Le Hang, Communications Director of VASEP, pangasius exports in October reached 189 million USD, a slight increase of 5% over the same period in 2022. By the end of October, pangasius exports reached over 1.5 billion USD, down 28% over the same period last year. Export of this key product is showing more positive signs after positive information about the US market. After the FSIS inspection program, Vietnamese pangasius was rated good for food safety.

In addition, preliminary results for the 19th review (POR19) for Vietnamese frozen pangasius fillets exported to the United States in the period from August 1, 2021 to July 31, 2022 has much lower tax rates than the previous period. Although not the final result, this is good news for businesses exporting Vietnamese pangasius to the US market.

The US market's demand for pangasius is also recovering. Currently, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) is looking to purchase 5.96 million pounds of frozen pangasius and catfish fillets for use in domestic food distribution programs. This is the ministry's third largest catfish purchase in 2023, following the purchase of 6.2 million pounds of unbreaded catfish fillets for a total of USD 41.8 million (EUR 38 million) in March.

Pangasius demand in China has decreased significantly since the beginning of 2023, but sales of breaded pangasius fillets are showing signs of improvement in this market... In the first 8 months of 2023, China imported 11,900 tons of pangasius from Vietnam, down 41% over the same period last year. However, sales of breaded pangasius fillets are still increasing, as this product appears more and more on restaurant menus in Northern China at prices of 5.47 - 6.83 USD/serving. This product also received positive feedback from Chinese consumers.

In particular, Brazil is Vietnam's third largest single pangasius consumption market with a turnover of 71 million USD, accounting for 5% of the country's pangasius export proportion to markets. Vietnam is also the largest source of whitefish for this South American country.

According to statistics from Vietnam Customs, in the third quarter of 2023, Brazil consumed Vietnamese pangasius with a turnover of more than 33 million USD, an increase of 49% over the same period last year. Vietnamese pangasius is loved by Brazilian consumers not only because of its delicious flavor and rich nutrition but also because of its reasonable price, especially in the context of global inflation as well as the tensions of the Russia-Ukraine war, causing people to tighten their spending.

The cooperative relationship between Vietnam and Brazil is increasingly developing positively, which is a good opportunity for Vietnamese agricultural products, including pangasius products, to come to this market.

Shrimp export still faces many difficulties

As one of the two main exported seafood products, exported shrimp is facing many difficulties. By the end of October 2023, shrimp accounted for 38% of seafood export turnover with a value of over 2.8 billion USD, down 24% over the same period last year. In October alone, shrimp exports reached about 320 million USD, down 11% compared to October 2022.

According to Ms. Le Hang, shrimp export developments in the last months of 2023 and 2024 depend largely on fluctuations in the US market. Shrimp import volume began to recover, however, US shrimp import prices were still much lower than the same period last year. Falling import prices not only affect Vietnam's exports, but the Indian shrimp industry is also struggling.

The seafood industry has had a worldwide shrimp surplus for more than a year. In the US, EU and China, average import prices in 2023 fell by 13.4%, 10% and 2.7%, respectively. It is forecast that the consumption and import situation in the US will be better in November and December.

Along with that, recently, the American Shrimp Processors Association filed an application with the US Department of Commerce against subsidies on shrimp products from Ecuador, Indonesia, India and Vietnam. According to Mr. Ho Quoc Luc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Sao Ta Joint Stock Company, if the lawsuit proceeds, it will create more challenges for the Vietnamese shrimp industry.

Highlights of seafood exports in October: Tuna and crab exports tended to be more positive with double-digit growth, up 13% and 40% respectively over the same period, reaching 87 million USD and 28 million USD. . By the end of October, tuna brought in 704 million USD, down 20%, and crab brought in 164 million USD, 12% less than the same period last year. Consumption of tuna, squid, octopus and some high-end seafood continues to be affected by the economic downturn, high inflation, and consumers spending cautiously. In order for most consumers to still have access to popular and high-end seafood products, seafood processors and traders are tending to package products in smaller sizes, at prices suitable for consumers' budgets at all income classes. This trend is expected to stimulate better demand for seafood in the near future.