Coffee prices hit record highs, heightening speculation risks

A farmer harvests coffee in Kon Tum Province. — VNA/VNS Photo

Coffee prices are soaring at an unprecedented pace, surpassing expert predictions and raising concerns over market speculation. On February 11, coffee prices in the Central Highlands climbed to VNĐ131,000 (US$5.1) per kilogramme, an increase of VNĐ2,000 from the previous day.

On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated between US$5,573 and US$5,696 per tonne (approximately VNĐ140,000–144,000 per kilogramme), while Arabica coffee on the New York exchange surged by US$540, reaching US$9,460 per tonne for the March 2025 contract.

According to nld.com.vn, Phan Minh Thông, Chairman of Phúc Sinh JSC, described the current price surge as "insane" and warned that the upward momentum could continue. He noted that businesses are being forced to buy and sell at elevated prices rather than securing pre-determined contracts.

The price hike is largely driven by tightening Arabica supply from Brazil—the world’s largest producer—as the country’s harvest season concludes. Meanwhile, farmers are holding back stock, anticipating further price increases. This supply squeeze has sustained Robusta prices at high levels, with the price gap between the two coffee types widening to US$3,780 per tonne.

Despite record-high prices, Vietnamese coffee farmers remain cautious about selling. Nguyễn Thị Chiến, a coffee grower in Kon Tum, said that her family sold only one tonne at VNĐ115,000 per kilogramme, keeping the rest in storage in hopes of further gains. However, market volatility has left many farmers uncertain about the optimal time to sell.

From October 2024 to January 2025, Việt Nam’s coffee exports declined sharply in volume, but increased in value. In January alone, the country exported 137,568 tonnes of coffee, generating US$694.93 million—a 38.2 per cent drop in volume but an 8.8 per cent rise in value year-on-year.

Director of Global Trade Link Co., Ltd., Nguyễn Ngọc Luận, remains optimistic about the price outlook, citing concerns over crop failures and potential U.S. tariffs on South American goods, which could strengthen Việt Nam’s competitive position in the global market.

However, Nguyễn Hữu Long of Việt Nam Coffee Academy JSC raised concerns that domestic coffee prices remain VNĐ15,000 per kilogramme lower than those on the London exchange, suggesting potential price manipulation.

The soaring prices have also raised alarms over counterfeit coffee production. In late January, authorities in Gia Lai uncovered three facilities in Pleiku mixing unidentified chemicals into ground coffee. Similarly, Brazil’s Coffee Roasters Association (ABIC) issued a warning about adulterated coffee made from husks, leaves and other non-coffee substitutes.

Despite record-high prices, Việt Nam’s coffee industry is unlikely to face an oversupply crisis, as land for coffee cultivation remains limited. Experts predict that strong prices will persist until July 2025, but warn farmers against excessive speculation to avoid financial risks.