AMRO revises Vietnam’s 2024 growth forecast upward to 6.3%, highest in ASEAN

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) revised Vietnam’s economic growth forecast upward to 6.3% for 2024 in its latest update released on July 16.

The growth rate is 0.3 percentage points higher than the 6% forecast in April and is the highest among ASEAN countries for 2024.

The Singapore-based organisation maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 at 6.5%.

In its flagship report, AMRO revised the growth of most ASEAN countries downward for 2024, with the Philippines projected to have the second-highest growth rate at 6.1%, followed by Cambodia at 5.6% and Indonesia at 5.2%.

The report by AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor noted that Vietnam was hit hard last year by the downturn in external demand, but is expected to benefit from a turnaround in external demand this year.

“This is going to be a very strong growth year for Vietnam. The country is one of those highly open economies that benefit greatly from trade,” he said.
However, Khor also pointed out some weaknesses in the economy due to uneven growth across sectors.

“In the real estate sector, for instance, there is a struggle from a downturn. There is scope for the authorities to implement targeted measures to help revive the real estate sector and also support the vulnerable group of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), many of which are still lagging behind,” he said.

AMRO staff forecast Vietnam’s inflation to rise by 3.8% this year, up from 3.6% in its April update.

Vietnam's economy was reported to have grown by 6.93% in the second quarter and 6.42% in the first six months of 2024. The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 4.08% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office.

In its latest forecast for the country’s GDP growth, the Ministry of Planning and Investment estimated that Vietnam's economy might surpass forecasts to grow by 7% this year. In one scenario, growth could hit 6.5%, matching the National Assembly's target. In a more optimistic scenario, growth could reach 7%, with higher rates in the last two quarters./.