Vietnam's growth forecast for 2020 revised up from 1.8% to 2.3%

	Improving sentiment boosts emerging East Asian Bond Markets amid Covid-19
	Vietnam among Asia-Pacific economies with fastest per-capita GDP rise: Bloomberg
	Global manufacturers flocking to Vietnam, reports Nikkei Asia

Economic activity in developing Asia is forecast to contract by 0.4% this year, before picking up to 6.8% in 2021 as the region moves toward recovery from the effects of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, according to a report released by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) today.

The new growth forecast, presented in a regular supplement to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Update, is an improvement from the -0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast in September, while the outlook for 2021 remains unchanged. But prospects are diverging within the region, with East Asia set to grow this year while other subregions are contracting.

“The outlook for developing Asia is showing improvement. Growth projections have been upgraded for the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India, the region’s two largest economies,” said ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada. “A prolonged pandemic remains the primary risk, but recent developments on the vaccine front are tempering this. Safe, effective, and timely vaccine delivery in developing economies will be critical to support the reopening of economies and the recovery of growth in the region.”

Pandemic-induced lockdowns and restrictions have been eased in varying levels in the region, with merchandise exports rebounding quickly from substantial declines in the second quarter. Mobility is also returning to pre-COVID-19 levels in East Asia and the Pacific, where the spread of COVID-19 has largely been contained or prevented in recent months. A recovery in tourism, however, is likely to be delayed.

Most of developing Asia’s subregions are forecast to contract this year. East Asia is the exception, with an upgraded growth forecast of 1.6% for 2020 on the back of faster than expected recoveries in the PRC and Taipei,China. East Asia’s growth outlook for 2021 is maintained at 7.0%.

South Asia’s GDP is forecast to contract by 6.1% in 2020, revised up from the 6.8% contraction expected in September. Growth in South Asia is forecast to rebound to 7.2% in 2021. The growth forecast for India, the subregion’s largest economy, for fiscal year (FY) 2020 is raised to -8.0%, from the -9.0% projection inb September, while outlook for FY2021 is kept at 8.0%.

Economic growth in Southeast Asia remains under pressure as COVID-19 outbreaks and containment measures continue, particularly in Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. The subregion’s growth forecast for 2020 is revised down to -4.4% from -3.8% in September. The subregion’s outlook for 2021 is also downgraded, with Southeast Asia now expected to grow 5.2% next year compared to the 5.5% growth forecast in September.

In Viet Nam, growth accelerated from 0.4% in Q2 2020 to 2.6% in Q3, lifting average growth for January-September to 2.1%. The growth forecast for 2020 is revised up from 1.8% to 2.3% on the strength of accelerated public investment, revived domestic consumption, trade expansion, and rapid recovery in the PRC. The growth forecast for 2021 is slightly revised down to 6.1%.

The outlook for the Pacific is unchanged for both 2020 and 2021 at -6.1% and 1.3%, respectively. Central Asia’s growth forecast for 2020 remains at -2.1%, but outlook for 2021 is slightly downgraded to 3.8% from the 3.9% growth projection in September.

Vietnam maintains rising position in Asian Power Index 2020 The Lowy Institute, an independent and nonpartisan international policy think tank based in Sydney, Australia, announced the ...

Regional inflation is expected to marginally ease to 2.8% in 2020, from the 2.9% projected in September, due to depressed demand and low oil prices. Inflation for 2021 is forecast at 1.9%, down from 2.3% forecast in September. Oil prices are retained at $42.50 per barrel in 2020 before increasing to $50.00 per barrel in 2021.