Vietnam’s GDP growth to be well above 6.5% target, forecast experts

Vietnam’s GDP growth is anticipated to hover between 6.9% and 9% this year thanks to the positive performance in the second quarter and the first half of the year, according to domestic and international economic experts.

vietnam s gdp growth to be well above 6.5 target, forecast experts picture 1
The Vietnamese economy is well on course to cushion COVID-19 impact and meet its GDP growth target for 2022. (Photo: Minh Luu & AA+Photography)

Economic recovery well on course

The General Statistics Office of Vietnam announced over a week ago that the national economy expanded by an estimated 7.72% in the second quarter and 6.42% in the first half of the year. Immediately after this, international financiers and economic experts moved to revise their forecasts, expressing their optimism about the country’s strong economic recovery moving forward.

In its economic update Vietnam At A Glance, the Hong Kong and Shanghai banking Corporation (HSBC) raised Vietnam’s GDP growth forecast for this year to 6.9% from its 6.6% prediction in the previous update, well above the 5.9% forecast by international financial institutions.

HSBC experts explained that the country’s successful control of the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with the easing of post-pandemic restrictions has enabled the ailing economy to gradually gather full steam. In line with this, tourism services have mostly benefitted from the Government’s decision to reopen its economy, while exports hit a record high fueled by a sharp rise in production.

Elsewhere, Singapore-based United Overseas Bank (UOB) lifted Vietnam’s projected GDP growth this year to 7% thanks to impressive economic growth recorded in the second quarter of the year. The bank predicted that the economy would edge up by around 7.6% to 7.8% in the second half of the year provided the country does not suffer any further disruptions due to COVID-19.

Kuala Lumpur-based Malayan Banking Berhad (Maybank), a global financier of Malaysia, also raised its GDP growth forecast for Vietnam from 5.8% to 6.9% this year following the release of positive economic gains recorded in the first six months of the year. However, the bank’s research group noted that the economy’s momentum moving forward could be affected in the second half of the year by slowing global growth, as well as rising prices that look set to impact household consumption.

Optimistic on positive outlook

Agreeing with this positive outlook, economist Can Van Luc and other experts believe that the national economy will continue to rebound ahead in the second half on the back of its competent pandemic control and sound socio-economic performance.

The experts said that whole-year GDP is projected to grow by 6.8% to 7.1%, 1% higher than the April forecast in a base scenario. This rises to between 7.3% and 7.6% in the positive scenario in the event that disease control is maintained, the economic recovery programme is soundly implemented, and negative impacts from the Russia-Ukraine conflict are minimised.

In an interview granted to local media outlets, economist Vo Tri Thanh even forecast that GDP growth this year would increase by 9% as the national economy is well on course to reach its pre-pandemic level.

“The above forecast is not groundless, because when there is nothing special the economy grows better in the second half of the year,” Thanh analysed. “There are forecasts that GDP could grow above 8% or more in the third quarter this year compared to a contraction of the same period last year. If the rate is maintained by 6% to 7% in the fourth quarter, it is likely that the economy will grow around 7% for the whole year.”

The leading economist also warned about internal and external risks that could potentially have a negative effect on national economic recovery moving into the second half, such as inflation control, decreasing purchasing power, and high interest rates by banks.

Moreover, economist Can Van Luc and other experts shared the view that in a negative scenario, GDP this year is forecast to grow by 6.3% to 6.6% with external risks increasing, the COVID-19 outbreak reoccurring, and the recovery programme slowing.

In a recent monthly meeting, the Government agreed with the Ministry of Planning and Investment’s proposal to strive for GDP growth of 7% this year, a figure which is 0.5% higher than the Government set target and 1% higher than the target previously approved by the National Assembly.

Accordingly, the Ministry of Planning and Investment has proposed two scenarios for economic growth in the second half of the year. In the first scenario, GDP in the third and fourth quarters is set to grow by 7.9% and 5.5%, respectively, to achieve the 6.5% goal for this year. In the second scenario, GDP in the third and fourth quarters needs to expand by 9% and 6.3%, respectively, to achieve a whole year GDP increase of 7%.

Source: VNS
english.vov.vn

Related News

Vietnam and UAE trade sees billion-dollar growth

Vietnam and UAE trade sees billion-dollar growth

VCN - According to General Department of Vietnam Customs by the end of September 2024, bilateral trade between Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reached nearly US$5 billion, an increase of more than US$1.4 billion over the same period last year.
Vietnam

Vietnam's daily import expenditure surpasses VND25,000 billion

VCN - From the beginning of the year to mid-October, on average, Vietnam spent more than USUS$1 billion (equivalent to more than VND25,000 billion) each day importing goods.
Vietnam - UAE trade grows to billions of dollars

Vietnam - UAE trade grows to billions of dollars

VCN - Updated by the General Department of Customs by the end of September 2024, bilateral trade between Vietnam and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) sees a year-on-year increase of more than US$1.4 billion to nearly US$5 billion
Launch of the “Proud of 80 years of construction and development of Vietnam Customs” contest

Launch of the “Proud of 80 years of construction and development of Vietnam Customs” contest

VCN - Towards the 80th anniversary of Vietnam Customs' tradition (September 10, 1945 - September 10, 2025), the General Department of Vietnam Customs (GDVC) launches the “Proud of 80 years of construction and development of Vietnam Customs” contest.

Latest News

Prime Minister to attend 8th Greater Mekong Subregion Summit

Prime Minister to attend 8th Greater Mekong Subregion Summit

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will lead a high-level delegation to the 8th Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Summit in Kunming, China’s Yunnan province, from November 5 to 8, at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
PM's visit a significant milestone in Vietnam – Qatar relations: Vietnamese FM

PM's visit a significant milestone in Vietnam – Qatar relations: Vietnamese FM

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son has granted and interview to Qatar's Asian Telegraph Newspaper on the outcomes of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh's visit to the Middle Eastern country from October 30 to November 1, as well as the cooperation prospects between the two countries.
Cuban top legislator concludes Vietnam visit

Cuban top legislator concludes Vietnam visit

Politburo member of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of the National Assembly of People’s Power Esteban Lazo Hernandez and the Cuban delegation successfully concluded their visit to Vietnam on November 3.
State President welcomes top legislator of Cuba

State President welcomes top legislator of Cuba

State President Luong Cuong met with Politburo member, President of the National Assembly of People’s Power, and President of the Council of State of Cuba Esteban Lazo Hernandez in Hanoi on November 2.

More News

Remove "bottlenecks" for economic breakthrough

Remove "bottlenecks" for economic breakthrough

VCN - In recent articles and speeches, General Secretary and President To Lam has repeatedly mentioned that the country is facing a new era of national growth. General Secretary and President To Lam also requested that the “bottlenecks” of the economy must be quickly removed, creating innovation and breakthroughs to complete the set tasks.
Int’l organisations, experts remain optimistic about Vietnam's economic outlook

Int’l organisations, experts remain optimistic about Vietnam's economic outlook

International organisations and experts have made positive comments on the Vietnamese economy, affirming their optimism about Vietnam's economic outlook.
Party chief clarifies major issues on new era of nation

Party chief clarifies major issues on new era of nation

Prof. Dr. To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)’s Central Committee on October 31 had a discussion with participants of a training course for officials planned for the 14th Party Central Committee, focusing on a number of issues on a new era – the era of the nation’s rise.
Vietnam, others call on US to immediately end embargo against Cuba

Vietnam, others call on US to immediately end embargo against Cuba

Vietnam calls on the US to immediately end its embargo against and remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, moving towards normalising relations between the two countries based on equality, mutual respect, and respect for each other's national sovereignty and political independence, stated Ambassador Dang Hoang Giang, Permanent Representative of Vietnam to the UN.
Vietnam

Vietnam's economy is recovering well

VCN - According to Dr. Nguyen Quoc Viet, Deputy Director of the Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR), by the end of the third quarter of this year, Vietnam's economy had recovered relatively well amid optimism about the overall growth of the world economy in late 2024 and 2025.
“Carbon footprint” reduction needed for sustainable tourism development: insiders

“Carbon footprint” reduction needed for sustainable tourism development: insiders

Vietnam's tourism industry is making efforts to reduce its “carbon footprint” in pursuit of sustainability, focusing on developing “green tours”, upgrading transport infrastructure, and developing renewable energy-used vehicles, said insiders.
Concerted efforts underway to prevent IUU fishing

Concerted efforts underway to prevent IUU fishing

Vietnam is making thorough preparations to welcome the European Commission (EC)'s inspection delegation with the hope of having its “yellow card” on illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing against the fisheries sector removed, thus boosting seafood exports to the EU market.
Vietnam needs to diversify supply chains for sustainable growth: economists

Vietnam needs to diversify supply chains for sustainable growth: economists

The diversification of global supply chains is creating significant opportunities for Vietnam to engage more deeply in international production networks. However, along with market expansion prospects, there are challenges posed by trade tensions, the reality of climate change accompanied by natural disasters, and the requirements for carbon emissions reduction, according to experts.
PM arrives in Abu Dhabi, beginning official visit to UAE

PM arrives in Abu Dhabi, beginning official visit to UAE

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, his spouse and a high-ranking delegation of Vietnam arrived at Zayed International Airport in Abu Dhabi at 11 am on October 27 (local time), starting their official visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the invitation of President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
Read More

Your care

Latest Most read
Prime Minister to attend 8th Greater Mekong Subregion Summit

Prime Minister to attend 8th Greater Mekong Subregion Summit

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh will lead a high-level delegation to the 8th Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) Summit in Kunming, China’s Yunnan province, from November 5 to 8, at the invitation of Chinese Premier Li Qiang.
PM's visit a significant milestone in Vietnam – Qatar relations: Vietnamese FM

PM's visit a significant milestone in Vietnam – Qatar relations: Vietnamese FM

Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son has granted and interview to Qatar's Asian Telegraph Newspaper on the outcomes of Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh's visit to the Middle Eastern country from October 30 to November 1, as well as the cooperation prospects between the two countries.
Cuban top legislator concludes Vietnam visit

Cuban top legislator concludes Vietnam visit

Politburo member of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of the National Assembly of People’s Power Esteban Lazo Hernandez and the Cuban delegation successfully concluded their visit to Vietnam on November 3.
State President welcomes top legislator of Cuba

State President welcomes top legislator of Cuba

State President Luong Cuong met with Politburo member, President of the National Assembly of People’s Power, and President of the Council of State of Cuba Esteban Lazo Hernandez in Hanoi on November 2.
Remove "bottlenecks" for economic breakthrough

Remove "bottlenecks" for economic breakthrough

General Secretary and President To Lam requested that the “bottlenecks” of the economy must be quickly removed, creating innovation and breakthroughs to complete the set tasks.
Mobile Version