Vietnam's economy in 2023 - "rock- steady" development

VCN - More than 2.5 years since the 13th National Party Congress, Vietnam has consolidated their determination to achieve important and comprehensive results in the journey of overcoming unprecedented challenges, focusing on preventing, fighting and controlling epidemics while promoting socio-economic recovery and development. It can be affirmed that the Resolution of the 13th Party Congress along with the Central Resolutions and Directives have come to life as a natural thing, because of their correctness and the compatibility to the real conditions and “in accordance with the people's hearts".
Vietnam's economy is returning to the fast growth trajectory Vietnam's economy is returning to the fast growth trajectory
Vietnam's economy has a large openness, so it suffers from many intertwined impacts Vietnam's economy has a large openness, so it suffers from many intertwined impacts
Vietnam's economy: a beacon in the global economic landscape Vietnam's economy: a beacon in the global economic landscape
GDP chart
GDP chart

Stabilize the economy against "headwinds"

Right after the 13th National Party Congress, our country faced many invisible difficulties such as prolonged Covid-19, escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, broken supply chains, high inflation, tightening monetary policies, increasing interest rates. As a result, the economic growth declines followed by more risks in financial and currency markets... and the global political, economic and social security have been severely hurt.

Domestically, Vietnam economy has severely hit by the socio- economic fluctuations such as the Covid-19 pandemic, climate change, natural disasters, storms and floods... Most industries and fields are seriously affected; requires both focusing on solving newly arising complex problems and dealing with weaknesses and backlogs left over from many years ago...

Speaking at the Vietnam Economic Forum through the half term of the 13th National Party Congress, Dr. Nguyen Cong Dung, Editor-in-Chief of the Communist Party of Vietnam Electronic Newspaper confirmed the right and strategic Party's leadership policy. Remarkably, 6 national conferences in 6 fields were organized in the first year of implementing the Resolution of the 13th Party Congress. Immediately after that, for the first time, the Politburo issued 6 Resolutions on socio-economic development, ensuring national defense and security in 6 strategic regions across the country with very clear messages. That is, creating high consensus and unity in awareness and action for rapid and sustainable development commensurate with the potential and advantages of each region and locality in the region. Notably, in the first half of the term of the 13th Party Congress, the Central Executive Committee, Politburo, and Secretariat issued 36 Resolutions and 54 Conclusions, including many related Resolutions and Conclusions to socio-economic development, thereby promoting economic recovery. The special feature of the Resolutions and Directives issued is immediate access to the grassroots, creating uniformity and comprehensiveness to quickly bring the Resolutions to life.

Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien, former Director of the Vietnam Institute of Economics, also highly appreciated the country stable micro-economy amid the global fluctuation in the last 3 years, Vietnam is still growing and has a stable micro-economy. “In such a turbulent and volatile context, in addition to being steadfast in the 'unchangeable' things, Vietnam still has measures to 'respond to all changes', thanks to which, from the 13th Congress until now, space for development has been expanded, not 'frozen' like before", Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien commented.

Therefore, despite many difficulties, our country's economy still achieved positive results. Vietnam is a bright spot in the "gray picture" of the global economy. Specifically, economy grew 2.56% in 2021, while many economies in the world have negative growth; Economic growth in 2022 reached 8.02%, much higher than the target of 6 - 6.5% and was a high level compared to other countries in the region and the world. In 2022, Vietnam became the fourth largest economy in ASEAN and the 40th largest in the world, its international trade scale belonged to the TOP 20 in the world, and is one of the most dynamic and opened economy worldwide. During the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam controlled inflation very well, while many other countries and regions recorded high inflation (all above 10%). It is reported that in 2023, GDP growth could reach over 5%, lower than the set target (about 6.5%), but this rate was quite high compared to many countries in the region and the world.

Synchronize solutions

Besides the achieved results, Vietnam's economic structure has not changed much; productivity, quality, efficiency and competitiveness are still low, average labor productivity in the 3 years 2021 - 2023 increases by 4.36-4.69%, lower than the 6.26% of the 3 years 2016-2018, The economy's autonomy and resilience are still limited. Recovery programs and national target programs have made progress but are uneven and slow... Long-term accumulated shortcomings in the land, real estate, and corporate bond markets have been paid attention to but it takes time to totally resolved. Industrial production keeps coping with difficulties; The development of regional links, economic zones and urban development has initially shown positive changes, but still revealed shortcomings. Some provinces and cities still develop according to local economic thinking; Coordination and cooperation mechanisms for regional development have not brought many results. Attracting new FDI, high technology, source technology and technology transfer are hindering, disbursement of public investment does not meet the plan...

Associate Professor, PhD. Vu Trong Lam, Director - Editor-in-Chief of Truth National Political Publishing also confirmed, our country's economy difficulties and challenges after half the term of the 13th Party Congress. On the other hand, strategic competition, economic competition, and trade war are taking place fiercely all over the world. To complete the average GDP growth target of 6.5%/year in the 5-year period (2021-2025) as set out at the beginning of the term, the average growth in 3 years (2023-2025) must reach about 7.3%/year. This is a very high level, requiring very high determination and great effort to achieve.

“It is forecasted that the financial - monetary market, real estate market, stock market, and corporate bonds will still be very complicated, with many potential risks. The liquidity of some commercial banks is weak and large enterprises and projects are exposed to many challenges. Production and business activities in some industries and fields tend to decline; Many businesses have had to reduce staff, reduce working hours, and lay off workers; The life of workers faces many difficulties. The growth rate of state budget revenue shows signs of decline", Associate Professor, PhD. Vu Trong Lam added.

Agreeing with the above point of view, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien also raised the necessity to reconsider many inadequacies within the economy in order to map out solutions. If evaluated correctly, major problems in development will be identified. Besides, from the fact that many technology corporations have recently entered Vietnam to explore opportunities and lay investment foundations, Associate Professor, Dr. Tran Dinh Thien said that it is necessary to change the approach to shaping strategies and finding more effective solutions in the second half term and the next term. At the same time, implementing institutional and policy reforms needs to be more fundamental.

​To achieve the common goal of the entire term of the 13th Congress, many opinions say that first of all, it is necessary to proactively analyze and forecast market developments to promptly respond appropriately; continue to stabilize and freshen markets from stocks, corporate bonds, real estate, petroleum... to strengthen the confidence of investors, businesses and people; Accelerate the progress of completing project documents, clearing land, and strongly reforming administrative procedures; promptly remove obstacles in implementation, focusing on restructuring the economy to attract and allocate resources more effectively.

In the new context, we are required to make good use of the results and lessons we have achieved, overcome existing limitations and weaknesses, continue to promote innovation, strive to take advantage of every opportunity; overcome all difficulties and challenges, to successfully implement the programs, plans, goals and tasks set for the second half of the term", Associate Professor-Dr. Tran Dinh Thien emphasized.

By Xuan Thao/ Thu Phương

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