IMF forecasts Vietnam's economic growth to reach 6.1 % in 2024

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2024 Article IV Consultation with Vietnam.
Workers during a working shift at a packaging factory in the northern province of Hung Yen. (Photo: VNA)

Workers during a working shift at a packaging factory in the northern province of Hung Yen. (Photo: VNA)

According to their report, economic growth is projected to recover to 6.1% in 2024, supported by continued strong external demand, resilient foreign direct investment and accommodative policies.

Domestic demand growth is expected to recover gradually as corporates navigate through high debt levels while the real estate sector will only fully recover over the medium term.

Inflation is expected to hover around the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s target of 4-4.5% this year.

“Inflation picked up in 2024, driven mainly by rising food prices, though core inflation remained relatively low and stable,” the IMF stated.

“The external current account posted a large surplus in 2023, at 5.8% of GDP, mainly reflecting a significant contraction in imports.”

The IMF's executive directors commended the Vietnamese authorities’ swift actions to maintain macro-financial stability after the economic recovery from the pandemic faced domestic and external headwinds.

However, it noted that downside risks remain elevated.

Exports, a key driver for Vietnam’s economy, could weaken if global growth disappoints, global geopolitical tensions persist or trade disputes intensify. Given easy monetary conditions, if exchange rate pressures were to persist for longer, it could lead to a larger pass-through to domestic inflation.

“Persistent weakness in the real estate sector and corporate bond market could weigh more than expected on banks’ ability to expand credit, hurting economic growth and undermining financial stability,” the report highlighted.

Given these challenges, further efforts are required to safeguard macro-financial stability and deepen reforms to address vulnerabilities and ensure robust, green and inclusive growth over the medium term.

The IMF's directors noted that fiscal policy should take the lead in supporting economic activity if needed. In this context, they welcomed the authorities’ plans to speed up the implementation of public investment, which will require tackling bottlenecks and stressed the importance of expanding social safety nets to support the most vulnerable. They also recommended strengthening the fiscal framework and budget process and increasing revenue mobilisation over the medium term to support the ambitious development agenda.

According to the IMF, the authorities have effectively contained inflation risks. However, they stressed that monetary policy should continue to be cautious under a complex environment and limited policy space.

The IMF's directors also acknowledged the authorities’ swift actions to contain risks in the real estate and corporate bond market but urged more decisive action to tackle remaining vulnerabilities. This includes strengthening the insolvency framework, bolstering institutions and increasing transparency in the corporate bond market.

In addition, Vietnam has also made structural and climate reforms to achieve sustainable, green and inclusive growth. Accelerating the transition to upper-middle income status will require further efforts to improve the business environment, step up critical infrastructure and invest in human capital.

The latest Power Development Plan and the planned Emissions Trading System can help achieve Vietnam’s climate goals and promote energy security, according to the IMF's directors./.

Source: VNA
en.vietnamplus.vn

Related News

Latest News

Việt Nam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Việt Nam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Việt Nam will be the standout among the top six ASEAN economies (ASEAN-6), growing at a faster pace relative to its peers during the next few years, according to the Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm.
PM asks efforts to achieve more than 8 per cent economic growth in 2025

PM asks efforts to achieve more than 8 per cent economic growth in 2025

Prime Minister Phạn Minh Chính has issued Official Dispatch No 137/CĐ-TTg on Friday on accelerating economic growth next year.
Việt Nam

Việt Nam's administrative restructuring will not impact foreign investors, says Foreign Ministry

Under the restructuring roadmap, the government will retain eight ministries and agencies but streamline their internal structures. For the remaining 14, the government will carry out reorganisation and mergers to reduce the number of administrative bodies.
Vietnam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Vietnam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Vietnam will be the standout among the top six ASEAN economies (ASEAN-6), growing at a faster pace relative to its peers during the next few years, according to the Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm.

More News

Government Party Organisation must be elite, streamlined, ensure effective operations: PM

Government Party Organisation must be elite, streamlined, ensure effective operations: PM

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, head of the Government Steering Committee for summarising the implementation of Resolution 18-NQ/TW of the 12th Party Central Committee, which seeks to streamline the political system for greater efficiency and effectiveness, chaired the fifth meeting of the committee in Hanoi on December 19.
Vietnam among Asia’s 15 largest economies

Vietnam among Asia’s 15 largest economies

The statistical visualisation platform Seasia Stats recently ranked Vietnam among the top 15 economies in Asia, with projected economic output reaching some 506 billion USD in 2025.
Chinese media praises Vietnam’s economic achievements, outlook

Chinese media praises Vietnam’s economic achievements, outlook

Chinese media outlets, including The Paper, CRI, Sohu, Sina, the Guangdong E-Commerce Association's website, and BWC, have published numerous reports and analyses highlighting Vietnam’s remarkable economic achievements in 2024 and its promising outlook for 2025.
Vietnam International Defence Expo 2024 opens

Vietnam International Defence Expo 2024 opens

The Vietnam International Defence Expo 2024 is due to kick off on December 19 morning at Gia Lam airport in Hanoi, gathering more than 200 units and enterprises from over 30 countries worldwide.
Vietnam sees growing number of Chinese investors: forum

Vietnam sees growing number of Chinese investors: forum

With sustained economic growth over years, Vietnam continues to impress and attract an increasing number of Chinese investors, participants said at an investment and trade forum between Ho Chi Minh City and China’s Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in the southern economic hub on December 17.
Border gate planning: Issues for Lang Son

Border gate planning: Issues for Lang Son

VCN - In order to exploit and promote the potential and economic strengths of border gates, helping to realize the aspiration of turning Lang Son into a "green border city" with a "border gate urban area", the requirements for openness and connectivity in border gate planning need to be clearly oriented, allocated and used effectively. In particular, the planning of border gate areas must be associated with the goal of digital transformation, in which human resources, equipment and infrastructure are prioritized.
Vietnam’s GDP growth poised for robust growth in 2024: officials

Vietnam’s GDP growth poised for robust growth in 2024: officials

With just days remaining in 2024, the Vietnamese economic landscape looks promising, with the GDP growth expected to exceed the set target of 7% thanks to concerted efforts by ministries and sectors, according to Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong.
Total retail sales of goods, services in 11 months up 8.8%

Total retail sales of goods, services in 11 months up 8.8%

Vietnam’s total retail sales of consumer goods and services saw a year-on-year increase of 8.8% to more than 5.8 quadrillion VND (228.4 billion USD) in January – November, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).
Vietnam should tap domestic market for economic growth: insiders

Vietnam should tap domestic market for economic growth: insiders

Vietnam's domestic market still holds significant untapped potential, and stimulating domestic consumption is a vital strategy to drive economic growth in the near future, according to economic experts.
Read More

Your care

Latest Most read
Việt Nam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Việt Nam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Việt Nam will be the standout among the top six ASEAN economies (ASEAN-6), growing at a faster pace relative to its peers during the next few years, according to the Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm.
PM asks efforts to achieve more than 8 per cent economic growth in 2025

PM asks efforts to achieve more than 8 per cent economic growth in 2025

Prime Minister Phạn Minh Chính has issued Official Dispatch No 137/CĐ-TTg on Friday on accelerating economic growth next year.
Việt Nam

Việt Nam's administrative restructuring will not impact foreign investors, says Foreign Ministry

Under the restructuring roadmap, the government will retain eight ministries and agencies but streamline their internal structures. For the remaining 14, the government will carry out reorganisation and mergers to reduce the number of administrative bodies.
Vietnam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Vietnam’s GDP growth to outpace region peers: Oxford Economics

Vietnam will be the standout among the top six ASEAN economies (ASEAN-6), growing at a faster pace relative to its peers during the next few years, according to the Oxford Economics, a global economic advisory firm.
Government Party Organisation must be elite, streamlined, ensure effective operations: PM

Government Party Organisation must be elite, streamlined, ensure effective operations: PM

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, head of the Government Steering Committee for summarising the implementation of Resolution 18-NQ/TW of the 12th Party Central Committee, which seeks to streamline the political system for greater efficiency and effectiveness, chaired the fifth meeting of the committee in Hanoi on December 19.
Mobile Version