Global coffee exports forecast to hit 5-year low

However, for the new year, the global output of coffee beans has been forecast by the US Department of Agriculture to drop by nearly 5.4 million bags to a 5-year low of 61.6 million for the 2016/17 (Oct/Sep) year, says the Association.

The Association adds that the lower production levels are expected in all the top-five coffee producers – Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, India and Uganda.

Output of Vietnam, it notes, is expected to drop by three million bags to 24.0 million after the effects of inclement weather in 2016 spill over and weaken yields in the current year crop.

For the month of January, Vietnam exporters shipped an estimated 127,000 metric tons (2.1 million bags) of coffee abroad valued at US$287 million in revenue, down 3.6% in value and 26.5% in volume year-on-year.

Meanwhile, prices of Vietnamese coffee dropped in February. Coffee prices in Dak Lak, largest coffee growing province in Vietnam, decreased to US$1.96-US$1.98 (VND44,500-VND45,000) per kilogram during the first week in February.

Vietnamese robusta grade two, 5% black and broken was quoted at discounts of US$65-US$70 per metric ton to the May contract, nearly unchanged from US$60-US$70 the last week in January.

The market is less robust as both sellers and buyers want to wait and see, said one coffee trader in Ho Chi Minh City.